networking & interconnect · Industry Index 9 (rank #152) ·
price: as of 2026-10-30 index: as of 2026-10-30 fundamentals: latest filing 2026-05-27 Reports quarterly (10-Q XBRL)
Semtech makes analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, including CopperEdge active-copper-cable and FiberEdge optical ICs for AI datacenter interconnect.
Industry exposure 0.3 (Semtech's CopperEdge and FiberEdge signal-integrity ICs target AI datacenter interconnect, but it also has LoRa/IoT and protection businesses.)
Delayed, end-of-day, aggregate per contract — not a live tape or trade-level flow. Buy/sell side is INFERRED from where each contract's last print sat in the bid/ask spread, not observed order flow. The company-wide side is withheld unless quoted contracts cover at least a quarter of the day's premium, so it can be blank while individual contracts below show a side. Call/put premium is measured across the chain we capture — the 6 nearest expiries within 45 days, not the full option chain — while the table below lists at most 20 flagged contracts, so summing those rows will not reproduce the percentage.
Why flagged:earnings in 26 days
| Date | Contract | Score | Side (inferred)? | OI Δ? | Volume | Vol/OI | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $125 CALL | 36 | sell-side | 0 | 156 | 156.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $180 PUT | 30 | buy-side | 0 | 198 | 198.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $190 PUT | 26 | buy-side | 0 | 115 | 115.0× |
17 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
latest session: 0.5× its 13-day baseline
18% calls / 82% puts (by premium)
News set the tone, but the swarm won’t commit — a positive tilt with weak agreement, so the call is Neutral.
Most voters leaned one way; structural dissented. Directional agreement 0.20.
A clear neutral score; conviction 0.00 reflects how strongly the agents agree. Conviction is confidence, not a probability of the move.
Semtech is an analog and mixed-signal chipmaker being reshaped around two franchises. The first is AI data-center connectivity in its Signal Integrity segment - FiberEdge TIAs and drivers for optical transceivers and CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables - whose net sales the FY2026 10-K reports at $322,608 thousand in fiscal 2026 against $177,033 thousand in fiscal 2024; the March 2026 HieFo acquisition added foundries that make devices for data-center interconnects. The second is LoRa, the long-range, low-power radio that IoT Analytics ranks as the leading LPWAN technology outside China. Around them sit protection devices, sensing and power products, and the IoT Systems business inherited from Sierra Wireless, whose cellular-module unit Semtech has agreed to sell to Compal Electronics for US$62 million (ABI Research, September 9, 2026, https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/insight/7788486-compal-electronics-takes-semtechs-mantle-t). Momentum is strong: the fiscal Q2 2027 release reports record net sales of $341.9 million, up 33% year over year, and management said data-center revenue hit a record $100 million in the quarter. But the 10-K is frank about limits - rapid ASP erosion, customers that can drop its parts with little notice, 47% of sales to China, competitors that are “much larger and better resourced than we are”, and patents that do not bar entry. Proprietary technology in two growing niches, rather than a locked-in customer base, makes the moat narrow.
Rating: narrow
Semtech’s FY2026 10-K (fiscal year ended January 25, 2026) supports a narrow moat and no more. On the durable side, it owns the LoRa® radio franchise - “our LoRa® devices and wireless radio frequency technology” - which IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (https://iot-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/INSIGHTS-RELEASE-LPWAN-Market-2024.pdf) ranks first outside China at 41% of LPWAN connections, and it argues that scarce analog talent “has historically made it more difficult for new suppliers in the analog market to quickly develop products and gain significant market share.” On the limiting side, the same filing says its patents do not “create definitive competitive barriers to entry”, that average selling prices “have historically decreased rapidly”, that some customers “can stop incorporating our products into their own products with limited notice to us and suffer little or no penalty”, and that customers in China (including Hong Kong) were 47% of fiscal 2026 net sales. The record is uneven: its income statement shows gross profit of $296,250 thousand on net sales of $868,758 thousand in fiscal 2024, $456,528 thousand on $909,287 thousand in fiscal 2025 and $542,144 thousand on $1,049,975 thousand in fiscal 2026, and the 10-K says difficulties “have adversely impacted” its ability to realise the benefits of the Sierra Wireless acquisition.
Type: intangibles ip
The defensible assets the 10-K describes are intellectual: the LoRa® radio technology, analog and mixed-signal design expertise - “The development of IP and the resulting proprietary products is a critical success factor for us” - and 303 U.S. and 541 foreign patents. The filing itself discounts the patent part (“we do not believe they create definitive competitive barriers to entry”), which leaves the moat in proprietary technology and scarce design know-how rather than in scale or lock-in: Semtech outsources most manufacturing, sold 74% of fiscal 2026 net sales through independent distributors, and its customer agreements “do not require them to purchase a minimum quantity of our products”.
Leadership: fast follower
LoRa, the technology Semtech owns, leads outside China; elsewhere Semtech is contesting the front rank. IoT Analytics’ March 21, 2024 release states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, though “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%” and “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”. In data-center optics, management said on the fiscal Q2 2027 call (TradingKey machine transcript, https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262131465-tradingkey) that at “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, a company figure; an independent September 2024 newsletter (Deep Fundamental) had instead named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. A third-party lead measured at the technology level rather than as Semtech’s own share, a company-reported share that the only independent view contradicts, and no ranking for its other lines do not evidence co-leadership, so the band is fast follower.
Pricing power: moderate
The 10-K describes a market where prices fall: “In the past, we have reduced the average selling prices of our products in anticipation of future competitive pricing pressures”, and Semtech’s products “are typically differentiated in performance but are priced competitively”. Margins have nonetheless climbed with the data-center mix: the fiscal Q2 2027 release (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000088941/000008894126000028/smtc-07262026x8k991.htm) reports GAAP gross margin of 53.8% against 52.1% a year earlier and guides fiscal Q3 adjusted gross margin to 58.3% +/- 100 bps, or 63.9% excluding the business held for sale. The release does not separate price from mix.
Curated moat judgment grounded in the cited source. source: sec.gov
Layer: networking & interconnect
Semtech sells mostly through independent distributors (74% of fiscal 2026 net sales) to OEMs. In AI data centers its FiberEdge and CopperEdge parts go into the optical transceivers and active copper cables that module and cable makers build, and the 10-K says hyperscale cloud providers “are generally our indirect customers”. Two customers took 14% and 11% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and customers in China (including Hong Kong) 47%.
Derived from this company's mapped supply-chain edges and its industry layer.
The moat prior voted +0.06 on the long (~6-month) horizon at weight 0.20 — the swarm call there is neutral (score 0.03, conviction 0).
Editorial prior — subjective, not backtested. It is bounded (±0.6), low-confidence, and never votes on short/medium. See exactly how it voted →
Products & services with an editorial market-share band and technical barrier band — qualitative judgments tied to a cited basis, never invented figures.
| Product | Market share | Technical barrier |
|---|---|---|
| CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables · Data center copper interconnect ICs Redriver ICs that extend the reach of copper cables in AI data-center racks, now ramping at 1.6T. | Unknown On the fiscal Q2 2027 call management described its CopperEdge solutions as “the de facto industry standard”, and the call summary says 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge products together are expected to be more than half of fiscal Q3 data-center revenue. That is a company characterisation with no figure behind it, and no independent share source was found, so the band is unknown. | Moderate The FY2026 10-K does not discuss CopperEdge by name, but warns of its data-center lines generally that “AI networking requirements may evolve rapidly” and that hyperscalers and well-capitalised competitors may adapt faster. On the call management said it is engaging a number of hyperscalers in cable and onboard applications in the design-win phase at bandwidths up to 3.2T, so the position must be re-won at each generation. |
| FiberEdge optical TIAs and drivers · Data center optical analog ICs Transimpedance amplifiers and laser and modulator drivers for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, within a Signal Integrity portfolio whose high-speed interfaces the 10-K says range from 100Mbps to 1.6Tbps. | Top 3 Per TradingKey’s machine transcript of the fiscal Q2 2027 call (August 25, 2026), management said “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, and at 1.6T “we are expecting to exit this fiscal year by January with better than 50% of market share”. Those are the company’s own figures; the only independent view found, Deep Fundamental’s September 27, 2024 deep dive (https://deepfundamental.substack.com/p/deep-dive-optical-module-market), named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. The band is held at top_3 rather than leader. | Moderate Each speed generation is re-won. The FY2026 10-K warns that “AI networking requirements may evolve rapidly, including shifts to higher data rates and alternative technologies”, and that hyperscale cloud providers and “well-capitalized competitors may be better positioned to develop or adapt to new technologies”. Semtech is adding photonic content to defend the socket - the call summary lists gain chips, high-power continuous-wave lasers, semiconductor optical amplifiers and photodiodes, with initial CW laser revenue expected in the first half of fiscal 2028. |
| IoT routers, gateways and connected services · Industrial IoT connectivity systems Cellular routers and gateways plus connected services - SIM and subscription management, device and data management, geolocation and reporting - in the IoT Systems and Connectivity segment; the segment’s cellular-module line is being sold to Compal Electronics. | Unknown The FY2026 10-K says the market for intelligent wireless routers “is quite fragmented depending on the vertical market segment, customer base and level of competition” and that “In the segments where we compete, we believe that our market share is strong” - a company view with no figure - and no third-party share source was found. | Low The same passage says “competition is intensifying” and that Semtech has launched next-generation products and increased its investment in sales capacity “To strengthen our share position”; its risk factors add competitors “that operate in lower cost jurisdictions than we do, or who receive government support or subsidies that we do not”. |
| LoRa devices (LoRa Edge, LoRa Connect, LoRaPLUS) · LPWAN IoT radios Semtech’s long-range, low-power LoRa® radio chips and platforms used in LoRaWAN networks, smart water and gas metering, asset tracking and Amazon Sidewalk. | Unknown IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (March 21, 2024) states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, while “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%”. Those are shares of the radio technology, not of Semtech’s chip sales, and the release adds that “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”, so they cannot be read as Semtech’s own device share and the band is unknown. Semtech’s LoRa-enabled sales reached a record $58 million in fiscal Q2 2027, per TradingKey’s call summary. | Moderate The technology is Semtech’s own - its 10-K calls them “our LoRa® devices” - and the release forecasts LoRa “to maintain its lead at 36%” of China-excluded LPWAN connections in 2027. The threat is substitution rather than imitation: the release says that “In 2023, licensed LPWAN connections surpassed unlicensed LPWAN connections, even when excluding China’s saturation of NB-IoT”, licensed meaning technologies such as LTE-M and NB-IoT. |
These charts plot Semtech's reported income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet from its SEC filings through 2026-05-27. Every figure is as-filed XBRL — none of it is an estimate.
Over the reported window, net income at a loss of $40.4M in FY2026.
Analyst consensus — third-party estimates from Yahoo Finance, as of 2026-10-26. Not SEC filings and not a TradingPilot forecast. source: finance.yahoo.com
| Period | EPS (est.) | Revenue (est.) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 1.13 (USD 1.07–USD 1.17) · 15 | USD 416428910.00 (USD 410100000.00–USD 420000000.00) · 14 | +56% |
| FY 2027 | USD 3.65 (USD 3.51–USD 4.03) · 15 | USD 1.5B (USD 1.5B–USD 1.6B) · 15 | +43% |
Each figure shows the consensus mean, its (low–high) range where available, and · the number of analysts behind that estimate.
Next report ~2026-11-23.
Our model leans Bullish on the stock over the medium horizon — a market-direction call, not an earnings forecast. See the Signal tab.
Comparing against peers…
| Institution | Shares | Value | Δ shares QoQ | % of 13F | % shares out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Passive / index | 9,749,439 | $1.6B | -4,472,780 | 0.0% | 10.45% |
| State Street Passive / index | 3,389,044 | $548.4M | -670,222 | 0.0% | 3.63% |
| Renaissance Technologies Guru | 207,116 | $33.5M | 207,116 | 0.0% | 0.22% |
| FMR (Fidelity) Passive / index | 182,797 | $29.6M | 86,124 | 0.0% | 0.20% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) Guru | 15,294 | $2.5M | -61,641 | 0.0% | 0.02% |
TradingPilot-computed columns (% of 13F, % shares out) are derived from as-filed 13F values; only name, shares and value are as-filed.
Tower Semiconductor · 2026-10-13 · partnership
Tower Semiconductor and Semtech announced an expanded multi-year agreement under which Semtech will invest in securing dedicated silicon germanium (SiGe) capacity at Tower to support demand for AI data center optical interconnect components. The secured capacity spans Tower's fabs in the United States, Israel and Japan.
2026-10-30 PR Newswire Energy · SMTC Recognized with Frost & Sullivan's 2026 North America Company of the Year Recognition for Mid-tier Electronic Manufacturing Services
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · NVTS vs. SMTC: Which Semiconductor Stock Should You Buy Right Now?
2026-10-24 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Brings 5G Network Slicing, FIPS 140-3 to IACP 2026
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Can Strong Momentum in LoRa Boost Semtech's Long-Term Growth?
2026-10-15 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - SEMTECH CORP (0000088941) (Filer)
2026-10-15 Business Wire AI · Semtech Outlines Data Center Growth Strategy at Analyst Day
2026-10-13 PR Newswire Tech · Did Semtech Corporation Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: MTSI · Can Semtech's 1.6T Ramp Accelerate its Data Center Growth?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Zacks.com featured highlights include Commerce.com, Motorsport Games, Semtech and Telos
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Rises 154% YTD: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
2026-10-12 Business Wire AI · Semtech Corporation to Host Data Center Analyst Day on October 15, 2026
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Corporation to Host Data Center Analyst Day on October 15, 2026
Impact = company-prominence tier (High/Medium auto-assigned by graph centrality/size; Low only on curated minor events), not a magnitude forecast.
| Date | Type | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-23 | earnings | Semtech earnings — Company-confirmed date. confirmed | Medium |
| Date | Event | Impact | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Semtech earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · +10.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | Semtech earnings confirmed | Medium | EPS beat · -4.4% |
