JCET Group (600584.SS) ☆
foundry & packaging · 产业指数 8 (排名 #158) ·
ⓘ 数据时效
价格: 截至 2026-10-09 指数: 截至 2026-10-12 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-06-30 按季披露（财务数据来自 Yahoo Finance；未在 SEC 注册）
JCET Group is China's largest and the world's third-largest OSAT, providing advanced SiP, fan-out and 2.5D/3D packaging for HPC/AI.
产业敞口 0.3 (JCET is the world's #3 OSAT and its XDFOI fan-out and 2.5D/3D SiP platforms win AI-accelerator and HBM packaging, but the bulk of revenue is still mainstream packaging.)
信号
信号: 截至 2026-10-09短期（约 2 周）
- ▼价格动量— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.47, confidence 0.40 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 内部推导
- ▼结构性— Industry Index 8.3 (falling -7.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 内部推导
中期（约 3 个月）
- ▲增长趋势— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing: revenue 2026Q2 vs 2025Q2]
- ▼价格动量— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.47, confidence 0.40 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 内部推导
- ▼结构性— Industry Index 8.3 (falling -7.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 内部推导
长期（约 6 个月）
- ▲增长趋势— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing: revenue 2026Q2 vs 2025Q2]
- ▼moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): none moat / fast_follower / weak pricing ⇒ narrowing/lagging long-horizon tilt -0.06. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — jcet — none moat, fast_follower, weak pricing (as of 2026-04-10)]
- ▼结构性— Industry Index 8.3 (falling -7.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 内部推导
关系网络
- Qualcomm — 客户
- Tongfu Microelectronics — 竞争对手
主要关系
- Qualcomm — 客户 · JCET provides packaging and test services within Qualcomm's supply chain as it expands advanced-packaging capacity for AI and mobile chips. 来源：digitimes.com
- Tongfu Microelectronics — 竞争对手 · Tongfu Microelectronics and JCET are China's leading OSAT providers, competing in advanced packaging for AI and HPC chips. 来源：marketresearchreports.com
异常期权活动需要一个在美国上市的品种；这家公司没有。
结构性 主导了这次看空判断；其余智能体意见分歧，置信度反映的正是这种分歧。
多数投票者倾向一致；结构性 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.50。
一个明确的看空分数；置信度 0.24 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
信号历史
护城河
护城河: 最新变动 2026-04-10JCET is mainland China's largest OSAT and the world's third-largest. It runs eight production bases in China, South Korea and Singapore and offers wafer-level, 2.5D/3D, system-in-package, flip-chip and wire-bond packaging, plus wafer probe and final test. Revenue in 2025 was RMB 38.87 billion, up 8.09%. By application, communications was 36.4%, consumer 23.6%, computing 21.3%, automotive 9.6% and industrial and medical 9.1%. Computing revenue grew 42.6% in 2025, then grew 40.4% in 1H26 to reach 30.1% of revenue. Volume is still mostly mainstream packaging: 38,880.05 million traditional units against 18,275.89 million advanced units in 2025. Most revenue comes from abroad. Overseas sales were RMB 30.44 billion of RMB 38.71 billion in main-business revenue, at a 12.20% gross margin against 20.40% on domestic sales. JCET is building in several directions: the XDFOI chiplet platform, a silicon-photonics engine for co-packaged optics that TrendForce (2026-01-30) says passed client-side validation, the JSAC automotive plant in Lingang, and the SDSS flash packaging plant, in which it bought 80% from Sandisk in September 2024. The 1H26 report shows revenue up 5.0% to RMB 19.53 billion, with net profit attributable up 79.4% to RMB 844.6 million. Even with that half-year gain, ROE was 2.92% for the half. The verdict is no moat: JCET is the scale leader among Chinese packagers, and its returns have stayed near 5% to 6% for three years while it catches up at the high end.
评级: 无
JCET has scale but not excess returns. TrendForce's 2024 OSAT ranking (2025-05-13) puts it third with '$5B in revenue (+19.3% YoY)', behind ASE at $18.54B ('nearly a 45% share among the top ten') and Amkor at $6.32B. JCET's 2025 annual report, citing ChipInsights, says it stayed third globally and first in mainland China, with the top three OSATs holding more than 52% combined. That scale has not lifted returns. The same report gives weighted average ROE of 5.81% in 2023, 6.00% in 2024 and 5.56% in 2025, or 4.86% in 2025 excluding non-recurring items. Main-business gross margin was 13.95% in 2025, up 1.07 percentage points. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 2.75% to RMB 1.565 billion on revenue of RMB 38.87 billion. ROE for the first half of 2026 was 2.92%.
类型: 无
None of the usual moat sources holds up in the cited evidence. Cost scale: JCET ranks third, but its ROE has stayed between 5.56% and 6.00% for three years, and TrendForce's 2024 ranking puts ASE at $18.54B against JCET's $5B. IP: the annual report lists 3,123 patents, 2,601 of them invention patents. The same report's 2026 plan says that in high-end advanced packaging the company will 'accelerate catching up' in customer binding, technology R&D and capacity. Its high-end advanced packaging plant, JCET Microelectronics, posted a net loss in 2025 while ramping. Switching costs: the top five customers took 48.80% of 2025 sales. Amkor's FY2025 10-K names JCET Group with ASE Technology and Powertech as established Asian competitors and says IDM customers weigh outsourcing against 'their own in-house capabilities'. JCET's 1H26 report adds that foundries and IDMs are speeding up their own advanced packaging. Policy also limits the high end. TrendForce (2025-02-14, citing Commercial Times) reports that with Chinese OSAT firms excluded from the U.S. PW list, 'high-end chip packaging is blocked in China', pushing those orders to Taiwanese OSATs.
领先地位: 快速追随者
TrendForce's 2024 ranking has JCET third at $5B, against ASE's $18.54B and Amkor's $6.32B. The annual report, citing ChipInsights, keeps it third in 2025. JCET is in volume at the high end but describes itself as catching up there. Its 2025 report says the XDFOI chiplet process has entered mass production and the company made 'substantive progress' in 2.5D volume production, but its 2026 plan also says it will 'accelerate catching up' in high-end advanced packaging. TrendForce (2026-01-30) reports that JCET's XDFOI-based silicon-photonics engine completed customer sample deliveries and passed client-side validation, and that UMC is targeting CPO mass production in 2027.
定价权: 弱
Main-business gross margin was 13.95% in 2025, up 1.07 percentage points, and materials made up 68.65% of packaging and test cost. The 2025 risk section says China's packaging industry 'has attracted many participants', and that rising competition may lower the industry's average unit prices and margins. The 1H26 report goes further: as new capacity comes on line, 'price competition in traditional packaging is especially prominent'. It also says the company improved its price-linkage mechanism and that gross margin 'continued to improve'.
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：static.cninfo.com.cn
产业链位置
层级: foundry & packaging
- 上游（供应商）： —
- 下游（客户）： Qualcomm
- 竞争对手： Tongfu Microelectronics
Back-end assembly and test contractor for chip designers, IDMs and foundries. In 2025, overseas sales were RMB 30.44 billion of RMB 38.71 billion in main-business revenue, and the five largest customers took 48.80% of sales.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
信号贡献 编辑先验
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 -0.06 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 0.11，信念度 0）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品线
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive electronics packaging (JSAC Lingang plant) · Automotive-grade assembly and test Packaging and test for ADAS, cockpit, e-drive and sensor chips, with a dedicated automotive plant in Shanghai Lingang that passed line qualification at the end of 2025. | 未知 No share was found. TrendForce (2026-01-19, citing ijiwei) reports JCET's automotive revenue 'surged 31.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025'. The 1H26 report gives automotive revenue of RMB 2.16 billion, up 25.0%, or 11.1% of revenue. | 中等 Qualification is a real hurdle. JCET says all eight of its bases hold IATF16949 certification, that it was the first mainland OSAT to join the AEC, and that JSAC 'passed production line qualification as scheduled' on December 31, 2025, per TrendForce. Rivals are building too: Tongfu's 2025 annual report says it doubled its automotive customer count and describes automotive as a market of 'fierce competition'. |
| High-performance advanced packaging (XDFOI chiplet, 2.5D, large FCBGA) · AI/HPC heterogeneous integration XDFOI high-density fan-out chiplet integration, 2.5D packaging and large-body FCBGA for computing, AI, networking and automotive chips, built mainly at the JCET Microelectronics plant. | 未知 No tracker share was found for this line. The 2025 annual report says XDFOI 'has entered mass production' and that 2.5D volume production made 'substantive progress'. Its 2026 plan also says JCET will 'accelerate catching up' in customer binding, R&D and capacity for high-end advanced packaging. | 中等 Entry is costly. JCET Microelectronics reached volume production of high-end products but posted a net loss in 2025, and the 1H26 report says its loss narrowed as the ramp sped up. Capable rivals exist, though. TrendForce (2026-02-27) says SJ Semiconductor's 2.5D and 3D packaging have 'both reached scaled mass production', and JCET's 1H26 risk section says foundries and IDMs are speeding up their own advanced packaging. TrendForce (2025-02-14) reports that Chinese OSATs were left off the U.S. PW list, which sends high-end packaging of restricted chips to Taiwanese OSATs. |
| Memory packaging (SDSS Shanghai flash plant, DRAM and NAND) · Memory assembly and test Flash and DRAM packaging and test, including the Shanghai plant JCET bought 80% of from Sandisk in September 2024. JCET cites 32-layer die stacking and 25um ultra-thin die capability. | 未知 No share was found. Sandisk's FY2026 10-K says its assembly and test runs on in-house facilities in Penang, facilities run by other contract manufacturers, and 'the assembly and test facility owned and operated by SDSS, a venture that is owned 20% by Sandisk and 80% by JCET Management Co., Ltd.', so SDSS is one of several sources. JCET says it works closely with the world's top three memory makers. That is the company's own statement. | 中等 Sandisk's 20% stake ties SDSS to Sandisk's flash output, but Sandisk keeps in-house and other contract capacity. JCET's 2025 annual report says SDSS profit fell as product restructuring, tight material supply and lower utilization weighed. The 1H26 report repeats that and adds system-upgrade costs. |
| Outsourced assembly and test services (all lines) · OSAT Turnkey packaging and test across wire bond, flip chip, wafer-level, SiP and 2.5D/3D, from eight bases in China, South Korea and Singapore. | 前三 TrendForce's 2024 ranking (2025-05-13) says 'JCET took third place with $5B in revenue (+19.3% YoY)', behind ASE ($18.54B) and Amkor ($6.32B). It attributes the growth to AI PC and mid-range smartphone platforms that 'helped JCET quickly fill capacity for standard packaging services'. JCET's 2025 annual report, citing ChipInsights, keeps it third in 2025. Amkor's FY2025 10-K names JCET Group among its established competitors. | 低 JCET's own risk disclosure says China's packaging industry has drawn many entrants, and that competition may cut average unit prices and margins. The 1H26 report says price competition is 'especially prominent' in traditional packaging as new capacity comes on line. Amkor's 10-K adds that 'geopolitical trade tensions have increased competition from Chinese firms supporting a China-for-China supply chain'. |
你正在看的是什么
这些图表绘制的是 JCET Group 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-06-30）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，营收增长 15%，达到 $5.6B（FY2022→FY2025）; 毛利率从 17% 变为 14%; FY2025 净利润为 $223.7M。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-06。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | CNY 0.46 (CNY 0.39–CNY 0.53) · 5 | CNY 12.2B (CNY 11.6B–CNY 13.1B) · 7 | +21% |
| FY 2026 | CNY 1.20 (CNY 1.08–CNY 1.36) · 3 | CNY 43.9B (CNY 41.7B–CNY 46.1B) · 12 | +13% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
利润表
现金流与流动性
资产负债表
部分近期数字来自 Yahoo Finance，用于填补最新 SEC 申报尚未发布的期间——已折算为美元，并与 SEC 申报期间做过核对。
申报文件
- 2026Q2 · 申报于 2026-06-30 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2026Q1 · 申报于 2026-03-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2025Q4 · 申报于 2025-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2025 · 申报于 2025-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2025Q2 · 申报于 2025-06-30 来源：finance.yahoo.com
显示另外 4 份较早的申报文件
- 2025Q1 · 申报于 2025-03-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2024 · 申报于 2024-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2023 · 申报于 2023-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2022 · 申报于 2022-12-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com
关键比率与同业对比
正在与同业比较…
13F 无法告诉你的事
- 延迟 45 天以上。持仓是所示季末的状态，最晚可在其后 45 天才申报。
- 只含多头、且限于美国上市品种。不含空头、现金、债券、外汇、境外或非上市持仓；上市期权按名义金额申报，并不计入单个持仓的股票价值。
- 1 亿美元门槛。规模更小的管理人根本不需申报。
- “占 13F 比例”不等于“占管理规模比例”。13F 只是一份不完整的持仓表。
- “已清仓”只表示“不再申报”——未必真的卖出了。
- 一个 CIK 可能汇总多个子实体。保密处理可以略去某些持仓。
- 被动指数申报人 不是投资大师。他们的 13F 变动是指数资金流，因此已被排除在 TradingPilot 的聪明钱信号之外。
- 量化机构须注意。量化机构（如 Renaissance）的 13F 是一份只含多头的季末快照，并不反映其真实的高换手、短周期策略。
- 投资大师页面与其持仓从不进入任何信号（无权重）。
尚无标记的新闻。
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
尚未追踪 JCET Group 的任何催化剂。