JCET Group (600584.SS) ☆
foundry & packaging · 產業指數 8 (排名 #158) ·
ⓘ 資料時效
價格: 截至 2026-10-09 指數: 截至 2026-10-12 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-06-30 按季揭露（財務資料來自 Yahoo Finance；未在 SEC 註冊）
JCET Group is China's largest and the world's third-largest OSAT, providing advanced SiP, fan-out and 2.5D/3D packaging for HPC/AI.
產業曝險 0.3 (JCET is the world's #3 OSAT and its XDFOI fan-out and 2.5D/3D SiP platforms win AI-accelerator and HBM packaging, but the bulk of revenue is still mainstream packaging.)
訊號
訊號: 截至 2026-10-09短期（約 2 週）
- ▼價格動能— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.47, confidence 0.40 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 內部推導
- ▼結構性— Industry Index 8.3 (falling -7.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 內部推導
中期（約 3 個月）
- ▲成長趨勢— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing: revenue 2026Q2 vs 2025Q2]
- ▼價格動能— Technical downtrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote -0.47, confidence 0.40 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 內部推導
- ▼結構性— Industry Index 8.3 (falling -7.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 內部推導
長期（約 6 個月）
- ▲成長趨勢— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing: revenue 2026Q2 vs 2025Q2]
- ▼moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): none moat / fast_follower / weak pricing ⇒ narrowing/lagging long-horizon tilt -0.06. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — jcet — none moat, fast_follower, weak pricing (as of 2026-04-10)]
- ▼結構性— Industry Index 8.3 (falling -7.8 over window) — structural headwind.[index] · 內部推導
關係網路
- Qualcomm — 客戶
- Tongfu Microelectronics — 競爭對手
主要關係
- Qualcomm — 客戶 · JCET provides packaging and test services within Qualcomm's supply chain as it expands advanced-packaging capacity for AI and mobile chips. 來源：digitimes.com
- Tongfu Microelectronics — 競爭對手 · Tongfu Microelectronics and JCET are China's leading OSAT providers, competing in advanced packaging for AI and HPC chips. 來源：marketresearchreports.com
異常選擇權活動需要一個在美國掛牌的商品；這家公司沒有。
結構性 主導了這次看空判斷；其餘代理人意見分歧，信心度反映的正是這種分歧。
多數投票者傾向一致；結構性 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.50。
一個明確的看空分數；信心度 0.24 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
訊號歷史
護城河
護城河: 最新變動 2026-04-10JCET is mainland China's largest OSAT and the world's third-largest. It runs eight production bases in China, South Korea and Singapore and offers wafer-level, 2.5D/3D, system-in-package, flip-chip and wire-bond packaging, plus wafer probe and final test. Revenue in 2025 was RMB 38.87 billion, up 8.09%. By application, communications was 36.4%, consumer 23.6%, computing 21.3%, automotive 9.6% and industrial and medical 9.1%. Computing revenue grew 42.6% in 2025, then grew 40.4% in 1H26 to reach 30.1% of revenue. Volume is still mostly mainstream packaging: 38,880.05 million traditional units against 18,275.89 million advanced units in 2025. Most revenue comes from abroad. Overseas sales were RMB 30.44 billion of RMB 38.71 billion in main-business revenue, at a 12.20% gross margin against 20.40% on domestic sales. JCET is building in several directions: the XDFOI chiplet platform, a silicon-photonics engine for co-packaged optics that TrendForce (2026-01-30) says passed client-side validation, the JSAC automotive plant in Lingang, and the SDSS flash packaging plant, in which it bought 80% from Sandisk in September 2024. The 1H26 report shows revenue up 5.0% to RMB 19.53 billion, with net profit attributable up 79.4% to RMB 844.6 million. Even with that half-year gain, ROE was 2.92% for the half. The verdict is no moat: JCET is the scale leader among Chinese packagers, and its returns have stayed near 5% to 6% for three years while it catches up at the high end.
評級: 無
JCET has scale but not excess returns. TrendForce's 2024 OSAT ranking (2025-05-13) puts it third with '$5B in revenue (+19.3% YoY)', behind ASE at $18.54B ('nearly a 45% share among the top ten') and Amkor at $6.32B. JCET's 2025 annual report, citing ChipInsights, says it stayed third globally and first in mainland China, with the top three OSATs holding more than 52% combined. That scale has not lifted returns. The same report gives weighted average ROE of 5.81% in 2023, 6.00% in 2024 and 5.56% in 2025, or 4.86% in 2025 excluding non-recurring items. Main-business gross margin was 13.95% in 2025, up 1.07 percentage points. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell 2.75% to RMB 1.565 billion on revenue of RMB 38.87 billion. ROE for the first half of 2026 was 2.92%.
類型: 無
None of the usual moat sources holds up in the cited evidence. Cost scale: JCET ranks third, but its ROE has stayed between 5.56% and 6.00% for three years, and TrendForce's 2024 ranking puts ASE at $18.54B against JCET's $5B. IP: the annual report lists 3,123 patents, 2,601 of them invention patents. The same report's 2026 plan says that in high-end advanced packaging the company will 'accelerate catching up' in customer binding, technology R&D and capacity. Its high-end advanced packaging plant, JCET Microelectronics, posted a net loss in 2025 while ramping. Switching costs: the top five customers took 48.80% of 2025 sales. Amkor's FY2025 10-K names JCET Group with ASE Technology and Powertech as established Asian competitors and says IDM customers weigh outsourcing against 'their own in-house capabilities'. JCET's 1H26 report adds that foundries and IDMs are speeding up their own advanced packaging. Policy also limits the high end. TrendForce (2025-02-14, citing Commercial Times) reports that with Chinese OSAT firms excluded from the U.S. PW list, 'high-end chip packaging is blocked in China', pushing those orders to Taiwanese OSATs.
領先地位: 快速追隨者
TrendForce's 2024 ranking has JCET third at $5B, against ASE's $18.54B and Amkor's $6.32B. The annual report, citing ChipInsights, keeps it third in 2025. JCET is in volume at the high end but describes itself as catching up there. Its 2025 report says the XDFOI chiplet process has entered mass production and the company made 'substantive progress' in 2.5D volume production, but its 2026 plan also says it will 'accelerate catching up' in high-end advanced packaging. TrendForce (2026-01-30) reports that JCET's XDFOI-based silicon-photonics engine completed customer sample deliveries and passed client-side validation, and that UMC is targeting CPO mass production in 2027.
定價權: 弱
Main-business gross margin was 13.95% in 2025, up 1.07 percentage points, and materials made up 68.65% of packaging and test cost. The 2025 risk section says China's packaging industry 'has attracted many participants', and that rising competition may lower the industry's average unit prices and margins. The 1H26 report goes further: as new capacity comes on line, 'price competition in traditional packaging is especially prominent'. It also says the company improved its price-linkage mechanism and that gross margin 'continued to improve'.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：static.cninfo.com.cn
產業鏈位置
層級: foundry & packaging
- 上游（供應商）： —
- 下游（客戶）： Qualcomm
- 競爭對手： Tongfu Microelectronics
Back-end assembly and test contractor for chip designers, IDMs and foundries. In 2025, overseas sales were RMB 30.44 billion of RMB 38.71 billion in main-business revenue, and the five largest customers took 48.80% of sales.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
訊號貢獻 編輯先驗
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 -0.06 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 0.11，信念度 0）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品線
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive electronics packaging (JSAC Lingang plant) · Automotive-grade assembly and test Packaging and test for ADAS, cockpit, e-drive and sensor chips, with a dedicated automotive plant in Shanghai Lingang that passed line qualification at the end of 2025. | 未知 No share was found. TrendForce (2026-01-19, citing ijiwei) reports JCET's automotive revenue 'surged 31.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025'. The 1H26 report gives automotive revenue of RMB 2.16 billion, up 25.0%, or 11.1% of revenue. | 中等 Qualification is a real hurdle. JCET says all eight of its bases hold IATF16949 certification, that it was the first mainland OSAT to join the AEC, and that JSAC 'passed production line qualification as scheduled' on December 31, 2025, per TrendForce. Rivals are building too: Tongfu's 2025 annual report says it doubled its automotive customer count and describes automotive as a market of 'fierce competition'. |
| High-performance advanced packaging (XDFOI chiplet, 2.5D, large FCBGA) · AI/HPC heterogeneous integration XDFOI high-density fan-out chiplet integration, 2.5D packaging and large-body FCBGA for computing, AI, networking and automotive chips, built mainly at the JCET Microelectronics plant. | 未知 No tracker share was found for this line. The 2025 annual report says XDFOI 'has entered mass production' and that 2.5D volume production made 'substantive progress'. Its 2026 plan also says JCET will 'accelerate catching up' in customer binding, R&D and capacity for high-end advanced packaging. | 中等 Entry is costly. JCET Microelectronics reached volume production of high-end products but posted a net loss in 2025, and the 1H26 report says its loss narrowed as the ramp sped up. Capable rivals exist, though. TrendForce (2026-02-27) says SJ Semiconductor's 2.5D and 3D packaging have 'both reached scaled mass production', and JCET's 1H26 risk section says foundries and IDMs are speeding up their own advanced packaging. TrendForce (2025-02-14) reports that Chinese OSATs were left off the U.S. PW list, which sends high-end packaging of restricted chips to Taiwanese OSATs. |
| Memory packaging (SDSS Shanghai flash plant, DRAM and NAND) · Memory assembly and test Flash and DRAM packaging and test, including the Shanghai plant JCET bought 80% of from Sandisk in September 2024. JCET cites 32-layer die stacking and 25um ultra-thin die capability. | 未知 No share was found. Sandisk's FY2026 10-K says its assembly and test runs on in-house facilities in Penang, facilities run by other contract manufacturers, and 'the assembly and test facility owned and operated by SDSS, a venture that is owned 20% by Sandisk and 80% by JCET Management Co., Ltd.', so SDSS is one of several sources. JCET says it works closely with the world's top three memory makers. That is the company's own statement. | 中等 Sandisk's 20% stake ties SDSS to Sandisk's flash output, but Sandisk keeps in-house and other contract capacity. JCET's 2025 annual report says SDSS profit fell as product restructuring, tight material supply and lower utilization weighed. The 1H26 report repeats that and adds system-upgrade costs. |
| Outsourced assembly and test services (all lines) · OSAT Turnkey packaging and test across wire bond, flip chip, wafer-level, SiP and 2.5D/3D, from eight bases in China, South Korea and Singapore. | 前三 TrendForce's 2024 ranking (2025-05-13) says 'JCET took third place with $5B in revenue (+19.3% YoY)', behind ASE ($18.54B) and Amkor ($6.32B). It attributes the growth to AI PC and mid-range smartphone platforms that 'helped JCET quickly fill capacity for standard packaging services'. JCET's 2025 annual report, citing ChipInsights, keeps it third in 2025. Amkor's FY2025 10-K names JCET Group among its established competitors. | 低 JCET's own risk disclosure says China's packaging industry has drawn many entrants, and that competition may cut average unit prices and margins. The 1H26 report says price competition is 'especially prominent' in traditional packaging as new capacity comes on line. Amkor's 10-K adds that 'geopolitical trade tensions have increased competition from Chinese firms supporting a China-for-China supply chain'. |
你正在看的是什麼
這些圖表繪製的是 JCET Group 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-06-30）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，營收成長 15%，達到 $5.6B（FY2022→FY2025）; 毛利率從 17% 變為 14%; FY2025 淨利為 $223.7M。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-06。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | CNY 0.46 (CNY 0.39–CNY 0.53) · 5 | CNY 12.2B (CNY 11.6B–CNY 13.1B) · 7 | +21% |
| FY 2026 | CNY 1.20 (CNY 1.08–CNY 1.36) · 3 | CNY 43.9B (CNY 41.7B–CNY 46.1B) · 12 | +13% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
損益表
現金流與流動性
資產負債表
部分近期數字取自 Yahoo Finance，用來補上最新 SEC 申報尚未發布的期間——已換算為美元，並與 SEC 申報期間核對過。
申報文件
- 2026Q2 · 申報於 2026-06-30 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2026Q1 · 申報於 2026-03-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2025Q4 · 申報於 2025-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2025 · 申報於 2025-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- 2025Q2 · 申報於 2025-06-30 來源：finance.yahoo.com
顯示另外 4 份較早的申報文件
- 2025Q1 · 申報於 2025-03-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2024 · 申報於 2024-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2023 · 申報於 2023-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
- FY2022 · 申報於 2022-12-31 來源：finance.yahoo.com
關鍵比率與同業比較
正在與同業比較…
13F 無法告訴你的事
- 延遲 45 天以上。部位是所示季末的狀態，最晚可在其後 45 天才申報。
- 僅含多方，且限於美國掛牌商品。不含空方、現金、債券、外匯、境外或未上市部位；掛牌選擇權按名目金額申報，並不計入個別部位的股票價值。
- 1 億美元門檻。規模更小的經理人根本無須申報。
- 「佔 13F 比例」不等於「佔管理規模比例」。13F 只是一份不完整的部位表。
- 「已出清」只表示「不再申報」——未必真的賣掉了。
- 一個 CIK 可能彙總多個子實體。保密處理可以略去某些部位。
- 被動指數申報人 不是投資大師。他們的 13F 變動是指數資金流，因此已被排除在 TradingPilot 的聰明錢訊號之外。
- 量化機構須注意。量化機構（如 Renaissance）的 13F 是一份僅含多方的季末快照，並不反映其真實的高週轉、短週期策略。
- 投資大師頁面與其持股從不進入任何訊號（無權重）。
尚無標記的新聞。
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
尚未追蹤 JCET Group 的任何催化劑。