Johnson Controls International (JCI) ☆

Johnson Controls designs, manufactures, installs and services commercial HVAC equipment (YORK chillers, Silent-Aire air handling, Frick and Sabroe industrial refrigeration), building controls (Metasys, the OpenBlue software platform), and fire and security systems (Simplex, Grinnell, Ansul), after selling its residential and light commercial HVAC business to Bosch on 31 July 2025. Per its FY2025 10-K, products and systems were about 68% of fiscal 2025 sales from continuing operations and services 32%, backlog was $16.6 billion at 30 September 2025, and the company employed about 87,000 people. The 10-K's case for an edge is the installed base: a large direct channel installs the company's own equipment, which "leads to significant repeat business for the maintenance, retrofit and replacement markets". Data centres are where the business is growing fastest: Omdia research on the 2023 market, reported in June 2024, put Johnson Controls among the top three data-centre cooling suppliers with Vertiv and Stulz, and on the Q2 fiscal 2026 call the CEO said the coolant distribution unit (CDU) business "has just started to ramp" with about $100 million expected that year. The Q3 fiscal 2026 release (2026-07-29) reported organic orders up 27% and a backlog of $21.0 billion, with Americas orders up 37% "supported by sustained demand from data centers and other mission-critical environments". The limits are in the same 10-K: contracts are negotiated or competitively awarded with price among the factors, a long list of large competitors (Honeywell, Siemens, Schneider Electric, Carrier, Trane, Vertiv, API Group, Daikin), a highly fragmented services market, fixed prices on backlog, and the 10-K's own warning that liquid cooling is a technology it must keep pace with. On the Q2 call the CEO also said security service is "a little less differentiated" than applied HVAC. A lifecycle service edge on a large installed base, in markets shared with several large rivals, is a narrow moat.

评级: 窄

Johnson Controls' FY2025 Form 10-K (fiscal year ended 30 September 2025, filed 2025-11-14) describes a real but bounded edge. On the advantage side it says "The Company's large base of current customers leads to significant repeat business for the maintenance, retrofit and replacement markets" and that it "is also able to leverage its installed base to generate sales for its service business"; Item 1A adds that its direct channel "creates a large installed base of our fire and security solutions and HVAC equipment, and creates opportunities for longer term service, monitoring, solutions and retrofit revenue over the lifecycle of the building." Stored fundamentals from the same 10-K show gross profit of $7,804 million on $22,331 million of revenue in fiscal 2023, $8,077 million on $22,952 million in fiscal 2024 and $8,592 million on $23,596 million in fiscal 2025. On the limiting side, the Competition section says the company works through contracts "either negotiated or awarded on a competitive basis", with price among the key award factors, names its larger competitors as Honeywell, Siemens Smart Infrastructure, Schneider Electric, Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Vertiv, API Group and Daikin, and says it "competes in a highly fragmented building services market". Item 1A adds that backlog orders are a commodity-cost risk "as prices on such orders are typically fixed" and that reduced demand "may also erode average selling prices". An installed-base and service edge contested by several large peers is a narrow moat, not a wide one.

类型: 转换成本

The 10-K places the advantage in the installed base and the service relationship that follows it, not in patents: it says "no single patent, or group of patents, is critical to the success of the business", while "The Company's large base of current customers leads to significant repeat business for the maintenance, retrofit and replacement markets." Item 1A says "Unlike many of our competitors, we rely on a direct sales channel for a substantial portion of our revenue", which installs HVAC equipment the company manufactures and "creates opportunities for longer term service, monitoring, solutions and retrofit revenue over the lifecycle of the building." Services were 32% of fiscal 2025 sales from continuing operations, and remaining performance obligations of $22.7 billion include large contracts for hospitals, schools and other governmental buildings with "average initial contract terms of 25 to 35 years". On the Q2 fiscal 2026 call (2026-05-06, https://s21.q4cdn.com/502874060/files/doc_earnings/2026/q2/transcript/Q2-2026-Transcript.pdf) the CEO described a service sales pilot that began in West Florida and said it "led to tripling service agreements immediately following new chiller startup commissioning." Equipment that stays in a building for its life and pulls service, controls and retrofit work behind it is a switching-cost source.

领先地位: 快速追随者

The only independent evidence is dated and covers one end market: Omdia's data center cooling research on the 2023 market, as reported on 2024-06-19 (https://www.intelligentcio.com/north-america/2024/06/19/omdia-research-predicts-data-center-cooling-market-to-reach-16-87-billion-in-2028/), said "Vertiv, Johnson Controls and Stulz retained their top three positions – Vertiv notably gained 6% market share due to strong North American demand and cloud partnerships." Across buildings as a whole the leadership claims are the company's own: the 10-K calls it "a global leader in smart, healthy and sustainable buildings" with "leading positions in attractive and growing end-markets across HVAC, controls, fire, security and services", and on the Q2 fiscal 2026 call the CEO said demand was "led by data centers where we're holding a leading position". The 10-K's Competition section names Honeywell, Siemens Smart Infrastructure, Schneider Electric, Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Vertiv, API Group and Daikin as larger competitors. That ranking describes the 2023 market, covers data-centre cooling only, lists Vertiv first and records Vertiv gaining share; no newer independent ranking was found, and the wider leadership claims are the company's own, so the band is fast follower rather than co-leader.

定价权: 中等

Price is contributing but bounded. In prepared remarks on the Q2 fiscal 2026 call (2026-05-06) the CFO said Americas adjusted segment EBITDA margin "improved 100 basis points to 19.5%, driven by higher volume and price realization", though in Q&A he said "a lot of that came from pure growth and leverage"; on tariffs he said "we'll be able to pass on some of that risk to pricing dynamics in the market." Stored fundamentals from the FY2025 10-K show gross profit of $7,804 million on $22,331 million of revenue (fiscal 2023), $8,077 million on $22,952 million (fiscal 2024) and $8,592 million on $23,596 million (fiscal 2025). The limits are in Item 1A: on backlog "prices on such orders are typically fixed; therefore, in the short-term, our ability to adjust for changes in certain commodity prices is limited"; "many of our customers permit quarterly or other periodic adjustments to pricing" but "we may bear the risk of price increases that occur between any such repricing"; and reduced demand "may also erode average selling prices". On the same call the CEO said that in security service "the balance between volume and price probably hasn't been appropriately been managed" and that it is "a little less differentiated, HVAC Applied being the most differentiated."

基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov

与其他公司对比…

产业链位置

层级: datacenters, power & cooling

• 上游（供应商）： —
• 下游（客户）： —
• 竞争对手： Trane Technologies, Vertiv

Johnson Controls sits on the facility side of the AI build-out: the 10-K lists data centers among the customers of all three regional segments and under "Capitalize on Key Growth Vectors", and Item 1A names "cooling technology (including liquid cooling)" as a capability it must keep developing. On the Q2 fiscal 2026 call the CEO said its Silent-Aire air-handling franchise "is enjoying very healthy growth" even as liquid cooling is adopted, and that the CDU business "has just started to ramp".

由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。

信号贡献 编辑先验

护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.06 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 -0.02，信念度 0）。

编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →

产品线

产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。

你正在看的是什么

这些图表绘制的是 Johnson Controls International 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-05-06）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。

在已申报的区间内，FY2025 净利润为 $3.3B。

我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。

申报文件

• 2025Q1 · 申报于 2026-05-06 来源：sec.gov
• 2025Q3 · 申报于 2026-05-06 来源：sec.gov
• 2026Q1 · 申报于 2026-05-06 来源：sec.gov
• 2025Q2 · 申报于 2026-05-06 来源：sec.gov
• 2026Q1 · 申报于 2026-03-31 来源：finance.yahoo.com

关键比率与同业对比

正在与同业比较…

机构持有人（13F）

尚无被追踪的 13F 持有人。

这可能意味着该公司的 CUSIP 尚未为 13F 匹配整理过，而不是没有机构持有它。