chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU) · 產業指數 14 (排名 #62) ·
價格: 截至 2026-10-30 指數: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-09-02 按季揭露（10-Q XBRL）
Credo Technology designs SerDes connectivity chips and active electrical cables (AECs) for AI data centers.
產業曝險 0.8 (Active electrical cables and SerDes are sold primarily to hyperscalers building AI data centers.)
延遲的日終逐合約彙總資料——不是即時盤口，也不是逐筆資金流。買賣方向是根據每個合約最後一筆成交在買賣價差中的位置推斷出來的，並非觀測到的委託流。除非有報價的合約佔當日權利金的四分之一以上，否則公司層級的方向會被隱去，因此下方個別合約有方向時這裡也可能為空。買權/賣權權利金是在我們擷取的合約範圍內計算的——最近的 6 個到期日、45 天以內，並非完整選擇權鏈——而下表最多列出 20 個被標記的合約，所以把這些列加總不會還原出上面的百分比。
標記原因：FOMC Rate Decision in 5 days
| 日期 | 合約 | 異常分數 | 買賣方向（推斷）? | 未平倉變動? | 成交量 | 成交量/未平倉 | 標記 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $146 PUT | 62 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | 0 | 177 | 22.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $155 CALL | 58 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | 0 | 253 | 9.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $160 CALL | 52 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +5 | 313 | 2.2× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $140 PUT | 46 | 買方主動 | -14 | 831 | 2.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $145 PUT | 44 | 買方主動 | +19 | 251 | 1.2× |
15 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：為 13 日基準的 1.3 倍
買權 27% / 賣權 73%（按權利金）
新聞 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——正向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；結構性 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.49。
一個明確的中性分數；信心度 0.03 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
Credo's durable asset is its own SerDes and DSP silicon, which the 10-K says reaches 'similar performance to leading competitors' products but at a lower cost and more highly available legacy node (n-1 advantage)'. That cost-and-supply edge, plus a portfolio the company believes is the industry's only complete high-performance connectivity suite, is what holds a position against far larger rivals — and it is held with roughly 90% of revenue coming from ten customers.
評級: 窄
The 10-K names Broadcom, Marvell and Astera Labs as principal competitors that compete on 'some, but not all' of Credo's solutions, and discloses that the top 10 customers were approximately 90% of fiscal 2026 revenue with two customers at 10% or more each. A defensible technical position sold into a handful of buyers with that much leverage is narrow, not wide.
類型: 無形資產與智慧財產
The filing states the products 'are based on our own optimized Serializer/Deserializer (SerDes) and Digital Signal Processor (DSP) technologies' and lists 'extent of IP protection and enforcement of rights' among the principal competitive factors in its market.
領先地位: 並列領先者
The 10-K states 'We believe we are the only company in our industry offering a complete suite of high-performance connectivity solutions', while naming Broadcom, Marvell and Astera as principal competitors on parts of the portfolio — a co-leader's claim, attributed to the company, not an independently observed share.
定價權: 中等
The n-1 node advantage the filing describes lets Credo price against competitors from a lower cost base, but the same filing discloses two customers at 10% or more of revenue and a top-10 concentration near 90%, which is buyer leverage working the other way.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：sec.gov
層級: chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU)
Upstream interconnect supplier: SerDes/DSP silicon and active cables sitting between accelerators, switches and optics inside AI data centers.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.13 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 -0.18，信念度 3）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| Optical PAM4 DSPs · Optical transceiver silicon DSPs inside optical transceivers spanning ~5 metres to over 10 kilometres at 50 Gb/s to 1.6 Tb/s. | 前三 Broadcom and Marvell are named principal competitors in the 10-K's competition section; the filing places Credo's DSPs in their seventh generation at 50G/100G/200G per lane PAM4. | 中等 Seven generations of integrated laser drivers, equalisation, distortion compensation and FEC per the product description — replicable by the two named competitors, both larger. |
| PCIe Retimers · PCIe connectivity Retimers extending PCIe reach inside AI and general-compute servers. | 挑戰者 Astera Labs is named as a principal competitor in the 10-K, and PCIe retimers are the segment the two most directly overlap in; the filing states no share for either. | 中等 Standards-defined interoperability, so competition is on power, cost and time to compliance rather than on a proprietary interface. |
| SerDes Chiplets and SerDes IP licensing · Licensable connectivity IP SerDes delivered as chiplets and as licensed IP to customers building their own silicon. | 利基市場 The 10-K describes the IP line as secondary — 'Our intellectual property (IP) solutions consist primarily of SerDes IP licensing' — alongside the IC and AEC product families. | 深 It licenses the same proprietary SerDes the rest of the portfolio is built on, which the filing names as the basis of its performance-at-lower-cost position. |
| ZeroFlap Active Electrical Cables (AECs) · AI datacenter copper interconnect Plug-and-play copper interconnect cables for 100G through emerging 1.6T data speeds. | 領先 The 10-K presents AECs as Credo's own trademarked category ('Credo's trademark purple ZeroFlap Active Electrical Cables') positioned against DACs and AOCs rather than against any named AEC rival — the competition section names no AEC competitor by name. | 深 Built on Credo's proprietary SerDes, and the ZeroFlap reliability behaviour was co-developed with Oracle to address Link Flap, per the filing's company overview. |
| ZeroFlap Optical Transceivers · Optical modules Optical transceiver modules built around Credo's own DSPs and ZeroFlap reliability work. | 挑戰者 A newer line the filing lists among current products; the competition section names 'various cable and optical transceiver suppliers' as competitors, an unnamed and crowded field. | 中等 The Oracle-partnered ZeroFlap work targets Link Flap reliability, which the filing calls a problem plaguing commodity options — a differentiator, not an exclusion. |
這些圖表繪製的是 Credo Technology 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-09-02）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，營收成長 2380%，達到 $1.3B（FY2020→FY2026）; 毛利率從 86% 變為 68%; FY2026 淨利為 $472.3M。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-26。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 1.28 (USD 1.22–USD 1.32) · 18 | USD 531946580.00 (USD 529800000.00–USD 551000000.00) · 17 | +98% |
| FY 2027 | USD 6.31 (USD 5.98–USD 6.64) · 20 | USD 2.5B (USD 2.5B–USD 2.6B) · 19 | +87% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-11-30。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
正在與同業比較…
| 機構 | 股數 | 金額 | 季增減股數 | 佔 13F 比例 | 佔流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被動 / 指數 | 17,759,842 | $4.8B | -2,059,560 | 0.1% | 9.45% |
| State Street 被動 / 指數 | 4,221,110 | $1.1B | -651,251 | 0.0% | 2.25% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被動 / 指數 | 1,768,057 | $480.8M | -959,442 | 0.0% | 0.94% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大師 | 844,238 | $229.6M | 481,900 | 0.3% | 0.45% |
| H&H International Investment (Duan Yongping) 大師 | 701,200 | $190.7M | -50,000 | 1.0% | 0.37% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大師 | 178,996 | $48.7M | -849,206 | 0.2% | 0.10% |
TradingPilot 計算的欄位（佔 13F 比例、佔流通股比例）由申報原值推導而來；只有名稱、股數與金額是申報原值。
Credo Technology · 2026-10-12 · 產品
Credo unveiled a 1.6T ZeroFlap active light cable (ALC), a wide-parallel optical interconnect for AI scale-out and front-end networks designed to draw 12W per cable-end, roughly 30% less than comparable active electrical cables, with a targeted reach up to 50m. The product will be shipping in 2027.
The Motley Fool · 2026-09-08 · 財報
Credo reported a record fiscal Q1 2027 quarter of roughly $479M in revenue, more than doubling year over year, and guided Q2 to about $530M with optics revenue expected to top $600M for the year. Shares fell sharply after the print as the outlook and lower GAAP gross margin drew analyst target cuts.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-02 · 產品
Coverage reports that Credo Technology's Toucan retimer has achieved PCIe 6.x compliance. Reported by a news outlet rather than stated in a company filing, so the claim is carried at the outlet's authority and no performance or revenue figure is attached to it.
SEC EDGAR (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · 2026-09-01 · 財報
Credo Technology reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results for the quarter ended August 1, 2026: revenue of $479.0 million, up 9.6% quarter over quarter and 114.7% year over year; GAAP gross margin of 64.5% and non-GAAP gross margin of 68.0%; GAAP net income of $129.4 million and non-GAAP net income of $236.3 million; GAAP diluted EPS of $0.67 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.20; and ending cash and short-term investments of $764.3 million. For Q2 fiscal 2027 the company guided revenue to $525-535 million with non-GAAP gross margin of 67.0-69.0%, a range whose midpoint sits at the Q1 level rather than above it. Figures are quoted from the company's own 8-K Exhibit 99.1.
Google News: Credo Technology · 2026-07-09 · 財報
Credo Technology reported $1.3 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026 and is expanding operations.
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: ALAB · Can Credo Technology Stock Bounce Off Its Current Support?
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) Faces High Expectations Despite Strong Growth
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: ALAB · What Has The Market Missed In Credo Technology Stock's Drop?
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo (CRDO): Can Optics Become the Second Engine for AI Data Center Cables?
2026-10-16 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (0001807794) (Filer)
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm vs. Credo Technology Group: Which Semiconductor Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
2026-10-10 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Where Will Credo Technology Be in 3 Years?
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Prediction: $5,000 Invested in Credo Technology Could Be Worth This Much by 2029
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology (CRDO) Joins the Co-Packaged Optics Race: Could It Unlock a New AI Growth Opportunity?
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: ALAB · CRDO's Retimer Business Gains Steam: Can the Momentum Continue?
2026-10-05 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo (CRDO) Grew Revenue 114.70%. Why Can Nobody Price It?
2026-10-02 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Why Credo Technology Stock Is Surging 8% on an Unemployment Jump
2026-10-02 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Up 30%, Should You Buy Credo Technology Right Now?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Arm vs. Credo Technology Group: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology Group (CRDO) Up 17.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology CEO Sells Company Shares Worth $2.5 Million
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-30 | 財報 | Credo Technology earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. 預估 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Credo Technology earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · -20.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | Credo Technology earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +1.3% |
