chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU) · 产业指数 14 (排名 #62) ·
价格: 截至 2026-10-30 指数: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-09-02 按季披露（10-Q XBRL）
Credo Technology designs SerDes connectivity chips and active electrical cables (AECs) for AI data centers.
产业敞口 0.8 (Active electrical cables and SerDes are sold primarily to hyperscalers building AI data centers.)
延迟的日终逐合约汇总数据——不是实时盘口，也不是逐笔资金流。买卖方向是根据每个合约最后一笔成交在买卖价差中的位置推断出来的，并非观测到的委托流。除非有报价的合约占当日权利金的四分之一以上，否则公司层面的方向会被隐去，因此下方个别合约有方向时这里也可能为空。看跌/看涨权利金是在我们采集的合约范围内计算的——最近的 6 个到期日、45 天以内，并非完整期权链——而下表最多列出 20 个被标记的合约，所以把这些行加总不会还原出上面的百分比。
标记原因：FOMC Rate Decision in 5 days
| 日期 | 合约 | 异常分 | 买卖方向（推断）? | 持仓量变动? | 成交量 | 成交量/持仓量 | 标记 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $146 PUT | 62 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | 0 | 177 | 22.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $155 CALL | 58 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | 0 | 253 | 9.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $160 CALL | 52 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +5 | 313 | 2.2× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $140 PUT | 46 | 买方主动 | -14 | 831 | 2.1× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $145 PUT | 44 | 买方主动 | +19 | 251 | 1.2× |
15 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：为 13 日基准的 1.3 倍
看涨 27% / 看跌 73%（按权利金）
新闻 定下了基调，但群体不愿下结论——正向倾斜叠加薄弱的一致度，因此结论为中性。
多数投票者倾向一致；结构性 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.49。
一个明确的中性分数；置信度 0.03 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
Credo's durable asset is its own SerDes and DSP silicon, which the 10-K says reaches 'similar performance to leading competitors' products but at a lower cost and more highly available legacy node (n-1 advantage)'. That cost-and-supply edge, plus a portfolio the company believes is the industry's only complete high-performance connectivity suite, is what holds a position against far larger rivals — and it is held with roughly 90% of revenue coming from ten customers.
评级: 窄
The 10-K names Broadcom, Marvell and Astera Labs as principal competitors that compete on 'some, but not all' of Credo's solutions, and discloses that the top 10 customers were approximately 90% of fiscal 2026 revenue with two customers at 10% or more each. A defensible technical position sold into a handful of buyers with that much leverage is narrow, not wide.
类型: 无形资产与知识产权
The filing states the products 'are based on our own optimized Serializer/Deserializer (SerDes) and Digital Signal Processor (DSP) technologies' and lists 'extent of IP protection and enforcement of rights' among the principal competitive factors in its market.
领先地位: 并列领先者
The 10-K states 'We believe we are the only company in our industry offering a complete suite of high-performance connectivity solutions', while naming Broadcom, Marvell and Astera as principal competitors on parts of the portfolio — a co-leader's claim, attributed to the company, not an independently observed share.
定价权: 中等
The n-1 node advantage the filing describes lets Credo price against competitors from a lower cost base, but the same filing discloses two customers at 10% or more of revenue and a top-10 concentration near 90%, which is buyer leverage working the other way.
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov
层级: chips (GPU/ASIC/CPU)
Upstream interconnect supplier: SerDes/DSP silicon and active cables sitting between accelerators, switches and optics inside AI data centers.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.13 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 -0.18，信念度 3）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| Optical PAM4 DSPs · Optical transceiver silicon DSPs inside optical transceivers spanning ~5 metres to over 10 kilometres at 50 Gb/s to 1.6 Tb/s. | 前三 Broadcom and Marvell are named principal competitors in the 10-K's competition section; the filing places Credo's DSPs in their seventh generation at 50G/100G/200G per lane PAM4. | 中等 Seven generations of integrated laser drivers, equalisation, distortion compensation and FEC per the product description — replicable by the two named competitors, both larger. |
| PCIe Retimers · PCIe connectivity Retimers extending PCIe reach inside AI and general-compute servers. | 挑战者 Astera Labs is named as a principal competitor in the 10-K, and PCIe retimers are the segment the two most directly overlap in; the filing states no share for either. | 中等 Standards-defined interoperability, so competition is on power, cost and time to compliance rather than on a proprietary interface. |
| SerDes Chiplets and SerDes IP licensing · Licensable connectivity IP SerDes delivered as chiplets and as licensed IP to customers building their own silicon. | 细分市场 The 10-K describes the IP line as secondary — 'Our intellectual property (IP) solutions consist primarily of SerDes IP licensing' — alongside the IC and AEC product families. | 深 It licenses the same proprietary SerDes the rest of the portfolio is built on, which the filing names as the basis of its performance-at-lower-cost position. |
| ZeroFlap Active Electrical Cables (AECs) · AI datacenter copper interconnect Plug-and-play copper interconnect cables for 100G through emerging 1.6T data speeds. | 领先 The 10-K presents AECs as Credo's own trademarked category ('Credo's trademark purple ZeroFlap Active Electrical Cables') positioned against DACs and AOCs rather than against any named AEC rival — the competition section names no AEC competitor by name. | 深 Built on Credo's proprietary SerDes, and the ZeroFlap reliability behaviour was co-developed with Oracle to address Link Flap, per the filing's company overview. |
| ZeroFlap Optical Transceivers · Optical modules Optical transceiver modules built around Credo's own DSPs and ZeroFlap reliability work. | 挑战者 A newer line the filing lists among current products; the competition section names 'various cable and optical transceiver suppliers' as competitors, an unnamed and crowded field. | 中等 The Oracle-partnered ZeroFlap work targets Link Flap reliability, which the filing calls a problem plaguing commodity options — a differentiator, not an exclusion. |
这些图表绘制的是 Credo Technology 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-09-02）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，营收增长 2380%，达到 $1.3B（FY2020→FY2026）; 毛利率从 86% 变为 68%; FY2026 净利润为 $472.3M。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-26。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 1.28 (USD 1.22–USD 1.32) · 18 | USD 531946580.00 (USD 529800000.00–USD 551000000.00) · 17 | +98% |
| FY 2027 | USD 6.31 (USD 5.98–USD 6.64) · 20 | USD 2.5B (USD 2.5B–USD 2.6B) · 19 | +87% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
下次财报约在 2026-11-30。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
正在与同业比较…
| 机构 | 股数 | 金额 | 环比股数变动 | 占 13F 比例 | 占流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被动 / 指数 | 17,759,842 | $4.8B | -2,059,560 | 0.1% | 9.45% |
| State Street 被动 / 指数 | 4,221,110 | $1.1B | -651,251 | 0.0% | 2.25% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被动 / 指数 | 1,768,057 | $480.8M | -959,442 | 0.0% | 0.94% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大师 | 844,238 | $229.6M | 481,900 | 0.3% | 0.45% |
| H&H International Investment (Duan Yongping) 大师 | 701,200 | $190.7M | -50,000 | 1.0% | 0.37% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大师 | 178,996 | $48.7M | -849,206 | 0.2% | 0.10% |
TradingPilot 计算的列（占 13F 比例、占流通股比例）由申报原值推导而来；只有名称、股数与金额是申报原值。
Credo Technology · 2026-10-12 · 产品
Credo unveiled a 1.6T ZeroFlap active light cable (ALC), a wide-parallel optical interconnect for AI scale-out and front-end networks designed to draw 12W per cable-end, roughly 30% less than comparable active electrical cables, with a targeted reach up to 50m. The product will be shipping in 2027.
The Motley Fool · 2026-09-08 · 财报
Credo reported a record fiscal Q1 2027 quarter of roughly $479M in revenue, more than doubling year over year, and guided Q2 to about $530M with optics revenue expected to top $600M for the year. Shares fell sharply after the print as the outlook and lower GAAP gross margin drew analyst target cuts.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-02 · 产品
Coverage reports that Credo Technology's Toucan retimer has achieved PCIe 6.x compliance. Reported by a news outlet rather than stated in a company filing, so the claim is carried at the outlet's authority and no performance or revenue figure is attached to it.
SEC EDGAR (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · 2026-09-01 · 财报
Credo Technology reported first-quarter fiscal 2027 results for the quarter ended August 1, 2026: revenue of $479.0 million, up 9.6% quarter over quarter and 114.7% year over year; GAAP gross margin of 64.5% and non-GAAP gross margin of 68.0%; GAAP net income of $129.4 million and non-GAAP net income of $236.3 million; GAAP diluted EPS of $0.67 and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.20; and ending cash and short-term investments of $764.3 million. For Q2 fiscal 2027 the company guided revenue to $525-535 million with non-GAAP gross margin of 67.0-69.0%, a range whose midpoint sits at the Q1 level rather than above it. Figures are quoted from the company's own 8-K Exhibit 99.1.
Google News: Credo Technology · 2026-07-09 · 财报
Credo Technology reported $1.3 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026 and is expanding operations.
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: ALAB · Can Credo Technology Stock Bounce Off Its Current Support?
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) Faces High Expectations Despite Strong Growth
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: ALAB · What Has The Market Missed In Credo Technology Stock's Drop?
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo (CRDO): Can Optics Become the Second Engine for AI Data Center Cables?
2026-10-16 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (0001807794) (Filer)
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: ARM · Arm vs. Credo Technology Group: Which Semiconductor Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
2026-10-10 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Where Will Credo Technology Be in 3 Years?
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Prediction: $5,000 Invested in Credo Technology Could Be Worth This Much by 2029
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology (CRDO) Joins the Co-Packaged Optics Race: Could It Unlock a New AI Growth Opportunity?
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: ALAB · CRDO's Retimer Business Gains Steam: Can the Momentum Continue?
2026-10-05 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo (CRDO) Grew Revenue 114.70%. Why Can Nobody Price It?
2026-10-02 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Why Credo Technology Stock Is Surging 8% on an Unemployment Jump
2026-10-02 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Up 30%, Should You Buy Credo Technology Right Now?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Arm vs. Credo Technology Group: Which Tech Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology Group (CRDO) Up 17.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: CRDO · Credo Technology CEO Sells Company Shares Worth $2.5 Million
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-30 | 财报 | Credo Technology earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. 预估 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Credo Technology earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益超预期 · -20.0% |
| 2026-06-01 | Credo Technology earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益超预期 · +1.3% |
