servers & ODM · 產業指數 17 (排名 #23) ·
價格: 截至 2026-10-30 指數: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-09-08 按季揭露（10-Q XBRL）
Dell Technologies is a global provider of PCs, storage and PowerEdge servers, including AI-optimized systems built around NVIDIA and AMD accelerators.
產業曝險 0.4 (AI-optimized ISG servers are a large and fast-growing backlog, but the company also earns substantial revenue from traditional PCs, storage and services.)
延遲的日終逐合約彙總資料——不是即時盤口，也不是逐筆資金流。買賣方向是根據每個合約最後一筆成交在買賣價差中的位置推斷出來的，並非觀測到的委託流。除非有報價的合約佔當日權利金的四分之一以上，否則公司層級的方向會被隱去，因此下方個別合約有方向時這裡也可能為空。買權/賣權權利金是在我們擷取的合約範圍內計算的——最近的 6 個到期日、45 天以內，並非完整選擇權鏈——而下表最多列出 20 個被標記的合約，所以把這些列加總不會還原出上面的百分比。
標記原因：FOMC Rate Decision in 5 days
| 日期 | 合約 | 異常分數 | 買賣方向（推斷）? | 未平倉變動? | 成交量 | 成交量/未平倉 | 標記 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $440 CALL | 80 | 買方主動 | +4 | 657 | 34.6× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $450 CALL | 72 | 賣方主動 | +1 | 532 | 11.6× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $435 CALL | 66 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +2 | 249 | 5.4× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $460 CALL | 63 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +5 | 276 | 5.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $360 PUT | 63 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +3 | 568 | 5.4× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $400 PUT | 61 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +529 | 1,662 | 1.8× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $445 CALL | 59 | 賣方主動 | 0 | 184 | 12.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $415 PUT | 59 | 價差中段 · 無法判定方向 | +62 | 624 | 2.0× |
12 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：為 13 日基準的 1.8 倍
買權 16% / 賣權 84%（按權利金）
新聞 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——負向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；新聞 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.07。
分數略偏正，但一致度薄弱——因此引擎給出沒有信心度的中性，而不是過度斷言。這是系統拒絕硬湊一個它並不具備的結論。
The AI-server line is enormous and it is not a moat - the FY2026 10-K says so in its own margin bridge. AI-optimized servers net revenue went 1,873m in Fiscal 2024 to 9,286m in Fiscal 2025 to 24,683m in Fiscal 2026 (+396% then +166%), lifting total ISG revenue to 60,826m (+40%). Over the same year ISG operating income as a percentage of segment revenue fell 110 basis points to 11.7% 'due to a decline in gross margin rate that outpaced the decline in operating expense rate. Gross margin rate decreased primarily as the result of a shift in mix towards our AI-optimized servers offerings', and the Fiscal 2027 outlook repeats the expectation of 'margin rate pressure resulting from a continuing shift in mix towards our AI-optimized servers offerings'. The cleanest test of pass-through is the filing's product-versus-services split: product net revenue grew 27% to 90,405m at a 13.7% gross margin (down from 15.8% and 17.5%), while services net revenue fell 4% to 23,133m at a 44.8% gross margin. The AI boom arrived entirely as thin product revenue and did not pull the profitable services book along with it. What Dell adds is described plainly as integration: it uses contract manufacturers, buys components from suppliers and 'subsequently sell[s] those components to the manufacturer', and its own 'manufacturing process consists of assembly, software installation, functional testing, and quality control'. The bypass is named too: 'We also face competition from non-traditional IT companies, including large Infrastructure-as-a-Service providers, that often buy their infrastructure directly from original design manufacturers. Competitive pressures could increase if customers choose to move existing workloads to these providers.' What survives as a moat is the part an ODM cannot sell an enterprise: a direct sales force and account teams, a global service and support footprint whose gross margin rate is still rising, storage that held revenue within 3% of flat through the whole mix shift, and Dell Payment Solutions financing that produces multiyear recurring arrangements.
評級: 窄
The FY2026 10-K describes advantages that are real but shallow, and a revenue mix that is diluting them. It names them as 'our end-to-end solutions portfolio, go-to-market capabilities, supply chain, and global services' and calls the direct sales channel 'a significant competitive advantage', while conceding it faces 'ongoing product and price competition in all areas of our business from both branded and generic competitors' and, on components, that 'any disruption that may occur because of our dependence on single- or limited-source vendors would not disproportionately disadvantage us relative to our competitors' - i.e. no differentiated supply position. The filing's own margin table shows where the franchise actually earns: total gross margin fell from 23.8% of net revenue in Fiscal 2024 to 22.2% in Fiscal 2025 to 20.0% in Fiscal 2026, and inside that, product gross margin fell 17.5% to 15.8% to 13.7% while services gross margin rose 40.8% to 41.4% to 44.8%. Narrow rather than none, because the high-margin services and storage core is intact and its margin rate improved; narrow rather than wide, because the line that is growing carries a 13.7% product gross margin and the filing attributes the whole decline to it.
類型: 成本規模
The filing locates the advantage in scale of distribution and supply, not in proprietary rights. It states 'Our world-class supply chain operates at significant scale', describes a direct sales force plus a partner network that produced 'approximately 40% of our net revenue' in Fiscal 2026, and lists supply chain and global services among its competitive advantages. The IP alternative is ruled out in the same document: with 25,859 granted patents held at January 30, 2026, Dell still says 'we are not substantially dependent on any single patent or group of related patents.'
領先地位: 並列領先者
The 10-K's only positioning claim is the unquantified 'Dell Technologies is a leader in the global technology industry'; it names no competitor and gives no share anywhere. The band therefore rests on disclosed absolute scale - ISG net revenue of 60,826m and CSG net revenue of 50,984m in Fiscal 2026, operations in over 170 countries - set against the filing's own admission that hyperscale Infrastructure-as-a-Service buyers 'often buy their infrastructure directly from original design manufacturers', which caps how much of the market Dell can lead at all.
定價權: 弱
The filing describes price-taking and its own tables confirm it. It reports 'ongoing product and price competition in all areas of our business from both branded and generic competitors' and says 'We closely monitor market pricing, including the effect of foreign exchange rate movements, in an effort to provide the best value for our customers.' Total gross margin fell from 23.8% of net revenue in Fiscal 2024 to 22.2% in Fiscal 2025 to 20.0% in Fiscal 2026, with product gross margin down to 13.7%; CSG operating margin fell three straight years (7.6%, 6.1%, 5.6% of segment revenue); and non-GAAP operating income as a percentage of net revenue 'decreased 10 basis points to 8.8%' even as revenue grew 19%. Consolidated operating margin did rise 70 basis points to 7.2%, but the filing credits a lower operating expense rate for that, not price.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：sec.gov
層級: servers & ODM
Integrator between accelerator and component suppliers and enterprise or sovereign buyers: the 10-K says Dell purchases components from suppliers, sells them on to contract manufacturers, and performs 'assembly, software installation, functional testing, and quality control', then reaches customers through a direct sales force and a partner network that generated about 40% of Fiscal 2026 net revenue.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.05 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 0.10，信念度 0）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| AI-optimized servers · AI infrastructure Servers configured for AI model training, fine-tuning and inferencing, disaggregated as a separate reported product category from the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2026. | 前三 Scale is disclosed, rank is not: AI-optimized servers net revenue was 24,683m in Fiscal 2026 against 9,286m in Fiscal 2025 and 1,873m in Fiscal 2024 (+166% and +396%), 'primarily driven by an increase in units sold'. The 10-K names no competitor and states no share, so top_3 is the strongest band the source supports. | 低 The filing describes its own contribution as integration rather than invention - components purchased from suppliers, contract manufacturers used, a process of 'assembly, software installation, functional testing, and quality control' - and names the bypass directly: large Infrastructure-as-a-Service providers 'often buy their infrastructure directly from original design manufacturers', with pressure rising 'if customers choose to move existing workloads to these providers'. |
| Client Solutions Group PCs and peripherals · Client computing Branded notebooks, desktops and workstations plus displays, docks and peripherals, sold as commercial and consumer lines with configuration, support, deployment and extended warranty services attached. | 前三 Disclosed as revenue, not rank: total CSG net revenue of 50,984m in Fiscal 2026 (+5%), split 44,062m commercial (+8%) and 6,922m consumer (-8%, after -17% the prior year). No share figure appears in the filing. | 低 Segment profitability has fallen every year on the filing's own table - CSG operating income of 5.6% of segment net revenue in Fiscal 2026 against 6.1% and 7.6% in the two prior years - in a business the 10-K says faces 'ongoing product and price competition in all areas of our business from both branded and generic competitors'. |
| Storage · Enterprise storage and data protection Primary, unstructured and data-protection storage across all-flash, purpose-built, software-defined and hyper-converged architectures. | 前三 Net revenue of 16,631m in Fiscal 2026 (+1%) after 16,457m (+1%) and 16,261m - a stable book disclosed in absolute terms only; the filing asserts no share or rank. | 中等 The stability is the evidence: storage revenue held flat within 3% across three years in which the rest of ISG more than doubled, on a portfolio the 10-K describes as spanning 'multiple architectures, including all-flash, purpose-built, software-defined, and hyper-converged infrastructure platforms'. The filing claims no switching cost, only that 'Our product and process patents may establish barriers to entry'. |
| Traditional servers and networking · Enterprise infrastructure General-purpose and mission-critical server portfolio plus the networking line that complements storage and AI-optimized systems. | 前三 Net revenue of 19,512m in Fiscal 2026 (+9%) after 17,850m (+13%) and 15,751m; no rank or share appears in the filing. | 中等 The growth is priced, not just shipped - the 10-K says the increase was 'primarily due to an increase in the average selling price of our traditional servers and networking offerings, partially offset by a decline in units sold', with the higher ASP 'primarily driven by richer configurations'. That is some latitude with installed enterprise accounts, but the filing describes 'demand for our traditional servers and networking offerings outpaced supply' rather than any structural lock-in. |
這些圖表繪製的是 Dell Technologies 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-09-08）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，營收成長 110%，達到 $113.5B（FY2015→FY2026）; 毛利率從 16% 變為 20%; FY2026 淨利為 $5.9B。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-26。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 6.56 (USD 6.41–USD 7.37) · 24 | USD 49.2B (USD 48.9B–USD 49.7B) · 21 | +82% |
| FY 2027 | USD 25.90 (USD 25.50–USD 28.93) · 26 | USD 193.4B (USD 192.0B–USD 197.3B) · 22 | +70% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-11-27。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
部分近期數字取自 Yahoo Finance，用來補上最新 SEC 申報尚未發布的期間——已換算為美元，並與 SEC 申報期間核對過。
正在與同業比較…
| 機構 | 股數 | 金額 | 季增減股數 | 佔 13F 比例 | 佔流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被動 / 指數 | 24,094,119 | $10.4B | -655,283 | 0.2% | — |
| State Street 被動 / 指數 | 13,764,359 | $5.9B | -576,056 | 0.2% | — |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被動 / 指數 | 5,654,576 | $2.4B | 1,412,435 | 0.1% | — |
| Renaissance Technologies 大師 | 646,677 | $279.0M | -74,900 | 0.4% | — |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大師 | 12,230 | $5.3M | -211,162 | 0.0% | — |
TradingPilot 計算的欄位（佔 13F 比例、佔流通股比例）由申報原值推導而來；只有名稱、股數與金額是申報原值。
Yahoo Finance (GlobeNewswire) · 2026-10-21 · 產品
NVIDIA introduced DSX POD, a reference design for Vera Rubin AI factories assembled and validated in modular containers before delivery. Computing and infrastructure partners plan to deliver the modular systems globally in early 2027; deployment still depends on prepared-site infrastructure.
NVIDIA Newsroom · 2026-10-16 · 產品
NVIDIA announced the availability of RTX Spark laptops, built on a superchip combining an NVIDIA Blackwell RTX GPU and an NVIDIA Grace CPU with up to 128GB of unified memory and up to 1 petaflop of FP4 AI performance; MediaTek collaborated on the custom CPU design. The laptops are available globally from ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, Microsoft and MSI, starting at $2,599.
IDC · 2026-10-08 · 財報
IDC's preliminary data show worldwide PC shipments fell 20.1% year over year to 62.7 million units in Q3 2026, which it attributed to continued supply constraints and an inventory pull-in earlier in the year as vendors and channels stocked up ahead of memory-driven price hikes. Lenovo shipped 14.9 million units, down 22.6%, Dell Technologies 7.6 million, down 25.0%, and Apple's shipments fell 11.3%.
NVIDIA Blog · 2026-10-07 · 產品
At a Microsoft event in San Francisco, NVIDIA said RTX Spark laptop preorders opened, with availability on October 16, and that RTX Spark delivers one petaflop of FP4 AI performance with up to 128GB unified memory; Microsoft said it built its Surface Laptop Ultra around RTX Spark. Microsoft also announced general availability of Microsoft Execution Containers (MXC) for running agents on Windows, and systems are coming from makers including ASUS, Dell, Lenovo and Gigabyte.
Google · 2026-09-21 · 產品
Google opened pre-orders for Googlebook, its new category of Android-based laptops designed for Gemini, with initial devices built by Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo on Intel and Qualcomm processors. Prices start at $899, and devices arrive on U.S. shelves starting October 4.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-11 · 財報
Dell lifted its full-year AI server revenue forecast for the second time this year, citing continued strength in AI infrastructure orders and a growing server backlog.
NVIDIA Blog · 2026-08-08 · 合作
NVIDIA says AI cloud company Firebird has brought online the CIS region's largest AI factory in Hrazdan, Armenia, deployed in just over six months. Firebird plans to deploy more than 70,000 NVIDIA Rubin and Blackwell GPUs and 300 megawatts of AI infrastructure capacity in Armenia by the end of 2027, on a 2-gigawatt global roadmap spanning Armenia, Kazakhstan and additional markets. NVIDIA says it intends to invest in Firebird; partners include Dell Technologies, CoreWeave, Schneider Electric and Vertiv, with Perplexity an early customer.
Google News: Dell Technologies · 2026-07-15 · 財報
Dell posted record server sales and hiked guidance amid the AI infrastructure boom.
Agenzia Nova · 2026-07-03 · 合作
Vodafone and Dell Technologies are collaborating in Spain to expand data center capacity.
SiliconANGLE · 2026-07-02 · 合作
Dell and Microsoft are collaborating to support enterprise AI through hybrid cloud infrastructure.
Reuters · 2026-07-01 · 合作
Dell and AMD are collaborating on commercial PC fleet security.
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell Technologies (DELL) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: DELL · What You Need to Know Ahead of Dell Technologies’ Earnings Release
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: DELL · What Dell Technologies Doubters Got Wrong Before A 297% Rally
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Why is Dell (DELL) stock soaring today
2026-10-27 Business Wire AI · Dell Technologies Strengthens Cybersecurity and Resilience Across AI Environments, Identity and Infrastructure
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell Technologies Strengthens Cybersecurity and Resilience Across AI Environments, Identity and Infrastructure
2026-10-21 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - Dell Technologies Inc. (0001571996) (Filer)
2026-10-21 PR Newswire Tech · Sourceability Appoints to Board of Directors Yvonne McGill, Former Dell Technologies CFO
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell Technologies (DELL) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: DELL · CDW Canada Awarded Canadian Partner Excellence Award by Dell Technologies for the Fifth Consecutive Year
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell Technologies (DELL) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Split On AI Outlook
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: NTAP · Barclays Downgrades Dell Technologies Stock After Massive Rally
2026-10-10 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell (DELL) Has Outpaced the S&P 500 by a Wide Stretch. Will the AI-Fueled Run Continue?
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell (DELL) Stock Looks Fairly Valued After Its Huge Five Year Run
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell Technologies (DELL) Outpaces Stock Market Gains: What You Should Know
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Dell Technologies (DELL) Unveils AI Ready Windows PCs For Creators And Developers
2026-10-08 Business Wire AI · Accenture and Dell Technologies Expand Collaboration to Help Enterprises Scale Private AI and Modernize Infrastructure
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: DELL · Accenture and Dell Technologies Expand Collaboration to Help Enterprises Scale Private AI and Modernize Infrastructure
2026-10-07 Business Wire AI · Dell Technologies Drives the Agentic AI Era with New Windows PCs and Workstations
2026-10-06 Yahoo Finance: SMCI · DELL Jumps 32% in 3 Months: Can Strong AI Demand Fuel More Gains?
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-24 | 財報 | Dell Technologies earnings — Company-confirmed date. 已確認 | 高 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Dell Technologies earnings 已確認 | 高 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +15.8% |
| 2026-05-28 | Dell Technologies results release 已確認 | 高 | 結果待定 |
