equipment & EDA · 產業指數 14 (排名 #64) ·
價格: 截至 2026-10-09 指數: 截至 2026-10-12 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-03-31 按季揭露（財務資料來自 Yahoo Finance；未在 SEC 註冊）
Japan's largest semiconductor equipment maker, supplying coater/developer, etch, deposition, cleaning and test systems to logic and memory fabs.
產業曝險 0.3 (Serves AI-driven leading-edge logic and HBM/DRAM, but its broad tool set also addresses mature nodes and non-AI segments.)
異常選擇權活動需要一個在美國掛牌的商品；這家公司沒有。
新聞 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——正向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；結構性 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.40。
一個明確的中性分數；信心度 0.20 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
Tokyo Electron 生產晶圓廠設備，對應其 Integrated Report 2026 所稱的 "four key processes necessary for semiconductor scaling: deposition, coater/developer, etch, and cleaning"，另有用於測試與先進封裝的晶圓探針台與接合機台。報告將其優勢建立在產品廣度與既有地位之上：在多數業務領域的市場佔有率估計居首；EUV 塗佈顯影設備的市場佔有率估計為 100%；已安裝機台約 100,000 台，依其自身估計居業界之冠，並支撐 Field Solutions 業務——該業務於 2026 財年銷售了 ¥626.0 billion 的零件、服務、二手設備與改裝；以及業界最大的專利組合。2026 財年淨銷售額創下 ¥2,443,533 million 的紀錄，但因原物料價格與人力成本上升，毛利率下滑 1.8 個百分點至 45.3%；隨著研發費用增加 11.1% 至 ¥277,866 million，營業利益率下滑 3.1 個百分點至 25.6%。中國佔 2026 財年淨銷售額的 34.1%，低於前一年的 41.7%。
評級: 窄
Integrated Report 2026（發布於 2026-09-15）記錄了其在整條產品線上的強勢地位：依 Tokyo Electron 自身估計，其在擴散爐、批次式沉積、金屬沉積、塗佈顯影設備、氣體化學蝕刻與晶圓探針台排名第 1，在電漿蝕刻與接合機台排名第 2，在清洗排名第 3，並在 EUV 微影用塗佈顯影設備上擁有 "100% share"；其已安裝機台依自身估計居業界之冠，約 100,000 台，每年約增加 4,000-6,000 台；其 26,592 件專利在 LexisNexis PatentSight+ 資料庫中居半導體生產設備產業第 1。即使銷售下滑，公布的報酬仍維持高檔：2022-2026 財年間，毛利率維持在 44.6% 至 47.1% 之間，ROE 維持在 21.8% 至 37.2% 之間，其中包括淨銷售額降至 ¥1,830.5 billion 的 2024 財年。市場佔有率排名、EUV 市場佔有率與已安裝機台的領先地位均為公司估計，而非第三方資料。
類型: 無形資產與智慧財產
報告稱其專利組合為 "fifth strength"，並表示就中長期企業價值而言，"by supporting our other four strengths, it serves a vital role as the foundation"：截至 March 31, 2026 共有 26,592 件專利，2025 年在日本創造 1,415 項發明、在海外創造 345 項，並連續第五年獲選 Clarivate Top 100 Global Innovators。其他優勢都建立在同一套專有製程 know-how 之上——與客戶共同制定、針對 "for the next four generations and beyond" 評估技術的技術藍圖，前段業務中的 "numerous development PORs"（process of record），以及 EUV 塗佈顯影設備的地位——因此，經由在客戶製程流程中取得認證而得到強化的專有製程技術，才是其護城河的來源。
領先地位: 並列領先者
The CEO's message describes Tokyo Electron as "one of the world's leading suppliers of semiconductor production equipment" and states a "goal of becoming number one globally" — it does not claim to be the largest supplier overall — while by its own estimate it ranks No. 1 in six charted segments (diffusion furnace, batch deposition, metal deposition, coater/developer, gas chemical etch, wafer prober), No. 2 in plasma etch and bonders, and No. 3 in cleaning.
定價權: 中等
Gross profit margin held in a 44.6%-47.1% range over fiscal 2022-2026, including fiscal 2024's sales decline, but in fiscal 2026 it fell 1.8 points to 45.3% "due to factors such as higher raw material prices and increased labor costs" even as net sales reached a record, and the CEO lists "revising prices appropriately with respect to cost increases caused by inflation" among five initiatives needed to improve the operating margin.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：tel.com
層級: equipment & EDA
Upstream equipment supplier to chipmakers: fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales of ¥1,775.4 billion went 59% to non-memory (logic, foundry, others), 31% to DRAM and 10% to NAND; by region, China took 34.1%, South Korea 22.3% and Taiwan 20.4% of net sales.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.13 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 bearish（分數 -0.30，信念度 31）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| Cleaning systems (CELLESTA single-wafer and batch cleaning) · Wafer cleaning Single-wafer and batch cleaning that removes residual photoresist, particles and impurities after etch. | 前三 No. 3 in cleaning (single-wafer and batch) by Tokyo Electron's estimate, its lowest rank among the nine segments it charts; cleaning was 9% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales against 13% the year before. | 中等 The report counts cleaning among its four key processes, but its listed frontend competitive advantages single out etch, film deposition and the EUV coater/developer, not cleaning; ranking third, Tokyo Electron faces at least two larger incumbents in the segment. |
| Coater/developers (CLEAN TRACK LITHIUS Pro series) · Lithography track (photoresist coat/develop) Coats the wafer with photoresist and develops the exposed pattern; the report pairs the coater/developer with EUV lithography exposure. | 領先 Ranked No. 1 in coater/developers and holding a "100% share" of coater/developers for EUV lithography, both by Tokyo Electron's estimate; coater/developers were 28% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales of ¥1,775.4 billion. | 深 The report lists "Supporting EUV through coater/developer and optimization technologies" among its frontend competitive advantages, and by Tokyo Electron's own estimate it holds a "100% share" of coater/developers for EUV lithography. |
| Deposition systems (thermal processing, batch ALD/CVD, single-wafer metal deposition) · Film deposition Diffusion furnaces and thermal processing, batch atomic layer and chemical vapor deposition, and single-wafer metal deposition. | 領先 No. 1 in diffusion furnaces (including thermal processing), batch deposition (including ALD and CVD) and metal deposition (single-wafer deposition) by Tokyo Electron's estimate; deposition was 20% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales. | 深 The same frontend competitive advantage — a development system for the etch and film deposition that are "the keys to higher performance and scaling" — covers the line, and the report describes DRAM work on "highly difficult capacitor film deposition" and next-generation transition metal materials for NAND word lines. |
| Etch systems (Tactras and Episode UL plasma etch, Certas LEAGA gas chemical etch) · Plasma and gas chemical etch Plasma etch systems and plasma-less gas chemical etch systems that etch dielectric, silicon and other films along the lithography pattern. | 前三 No. 2 in plasma etch and No. 1 in gas chemical etch by Tokyo Electron's estimate; etch was its largest product line at 36% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales. | 深 The report lists a "powerful development system for achieving the etch and film deposition that are the keys to higher performance and scaling" as a frontend competitive advantage, and describes development of high aspect ratio etch for DRAM and cryogenic etch for deep holes and trenches in NAND. |
| Field Solutions (parts, services, used equipment and modifications) · Installed-base services Maintenance parts and services, used equipment, and modifications for equipment already installed at customer fabs. | 未知 The report gives no market share for services; it reports Field Solutions sales of ¥626.0 billion in fiscal 2026 (¥435.9 billion parts and services, ¥190.0 billion used equipment and modification), up from ¥538.3 billion the year before. | 中等 Field Solutions sells into Tokyo Electron's own installed base — approximately 100,000 units, industry-leading by its estimate and growing by approximately 4,000-6,000 units a year — and the MD&A attributes fiscal 2026 growth to higher customer utilization lifting modifications, maintenance parts and related services for equipment it had previously sold; the report does not say rivals are excluded from servicing that base. |
| Wafer bonding and laser systems (Synapse, Ulucus) · Advanced packaging and bonding Permanent wafer bonding (Synapse Si), wafer bonding/debonding (Synapse V, Synapse Z Plus), and laser edge trimming and extreme laser lift-off (Ulucus L, Ulucus LX), aimed at HBM, stacked flash and stacked logic. | 前三 No. 2 in bonders by Tokyo Electron's estimate; it estimates the bonding process equipment market will grow at a CAGR of over 30% between 2026 and 2030 and exceed 300 billion yen in 2030. | 中等 The report describes its bonders as fusing process technologies such as plasma control and cleaning with mechanical alignment, leveraging frontend know-how; but its newest systems (Synapse Si, Ulucus L and LX) are still in customer evaluation, which it says is "proceeding smoothly". |
| Wafer probers (Prexa, WDF 12DP+) · Wafer test handling Wafer and dicing-frame probers for electrical testing, including the Prexa SDP singulated device prober for known-good-die testing in advanced packaging. | 領先 No. 1 in wafer probers by Tokyo Electron's estimate; wafer probers were 5% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales. | 中等 The report's backend competitive advantages cite a "yield improvement approach through fusion of bonding and testing technologies", and it launched the Prexa SDP for the heat-absorption and temperature-control challenges of testing leading-edge devices; it offers no other barrier evidence for the line. |
這些圖表繪製的是 Tokyo Electron 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-03-31）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，營收下滑 7%，降至 $15.4B（FY2023→FY2026）; FY2026 淨利為 $3.6B。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-12。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | JPY 85.01 (JPY 77.04–JPY 91.00) · 5 | JPY 898.9B (JPY 890.0B–JPY 920.0B) · 10 | +43% |
| FY 2027 | JPY 344.66 (JPY 285.21–JPY 384.22) · 21 | JPY 3416.8B (JPY 3151.3B–JPY 3650.8B) · 21 | +55% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-10-30。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
部分近期數字取自 Yahoo Finance，用來補上最新 SEC 申報尚未發布的期間——已換算為美元，並與 SEC 申報期間核對過。
正在與同業比較…
Nikkei Asia · 2026-10-06 · 財報
Tokyo Electron's operating profit is likely to grow about 60% to a record 1 trillion yen ($6.3 billion) for the fiscal year ending March, with earnings buoyed by strong sales and price increases, Nikkei Asia reported, citing the company's CFO.
Tokyo Electron · 2026-09-17 · 融資
Tokyo Electron set up a sponsored Level I ADR program in the United States, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as depositary. The ADRs (ticker TELWY, 2 ADRs = 1 ordinary share) were expected to start trading over the counter on September 17, 2026 (U.S. Eastern Time), with no capital raising, and the previously unsponsored ADRs are expected to move into the program.
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 財報 | Tokyo Electron earnings — Company-confirmed date. 已確認 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Tokyo Electron earnings 已確認 | 中 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +6.2% |
