equipment & EDA · 产业指数 14 (排名 #64) ·
价格: 截至 2026-10-09 指数: 截至 2026-10-12 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-03-31 按季披露（财务数据来自 Yahoo Finance；未在 SEC 注册）
Japan's largest semiconductor equipment maker, supplying coater/developer, etch, deposition, cleaning and test systems to logic and memory fabs.
产业敞口 0.3 (Serves AI-driven leading-edge logic and HBM/DRAM, but its broad tool set also addresses mature nodes and non-AI segments.)
异常期权活动需要一个在美国上市的品种；这家公司没有。
新闻 定下了基调，但群体不愿下结论——正向倾斜叠加薄弱的一致度，因此结论为中性。
多数投票者倾向一致；结构性 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.40。
一个明确的中性分数；置信度 0.20 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
Tokyo Electron 为其 Integrated Report 2026 所称的 "four key processes necessary for semiconductor scaling: deposition, coater/developer, etch, and cleaning" 制造晶圆制造设备，另有用于测试和先进封装的晶圆探针台与键合设备。报告将其优势建立在广度与在位地位之上：其大多数业务板块的份额估计领先；EUV 涂胶显影设备份额估计为 100%；约 100,000 台的既有装机基础（按其自身估计为业界领先）支撑着 Field Solutions 业务，该业务在 2026 财年销售了 ¥626.0 billion 的零部件、服务、二手设备和改造；以及业界最大的专利组合。2026 财年净销售额创纪录，达 ¥2,443,533 million，但由于原材料价格和劳动力成本上升，毛利率下降 1.8 个百分点至 45.3%；随着研发费用增长 11.1% 至 ¥277,866 million，营业利润率下降 3.1 个百分点至 25.6%。中国占 2026 财年净销售额的 34.1%，低于上一年的 41.7%。
评级: 窄
Integrated Report 2026（发布于 2026-09-15）记录了其全线的强势地位：按 Tokyo Electron 自身估计，它在扩散炉、批次式沉积、金属沉积、涂胶显影设备、气体化学刻蚀和晶圆探针台方面排名第 1，在等离子体刻蚀和键合设备方面排名第 2，在清洗方面排名第 3，并在 EUV 光刻用涂胶显影设备中拥有 "100% share"；其既有装机基础按自身估计为业界领先，约为 100,000 台，每年增长约 4,000-6,000 台；其 26,592 项专利在 LexisNexis PatentSight+ 数据库中位列半导体生产设备行业第 1。在销售下滑期间，其报告的回报率依然保持高位：2022-2026 财年，毛利率保持在 44.6% 至 47.1% 之间，ROE 保持在 21.8% 至 37.2% 之间，其中包括净销售额降至 ¥1,830.5 billion 的 2024 财年。份额排名、EUV 份额和既有装机基础领先地位均为公司估计，而非第三方数据。
类型: 无形资产与知识产权
报告将其专利组合称为 "fifth strength"，并称就中长期企业价值而言，"by supporting our other four strengths, it serves a vital role as the foundation"：截至 March 31, 2026 拥有 26,592 项专利，2025 年在日本产生 1,415 项发明、在海外产生 345 项，并连续第五年入选 Clarivate Top 100 Global Innovators。其他几项优势依托于同一套专有工艺诀窍——与客户共同制定、评估 "for the next four generations and beyond" 技术的技术路线图，前道业务中的 "numerous development PORs"（process of record），以及 EUV 涂胶显影设备地位——因此，由客户工艺流程中的认证所强化的专有工艺技术，才是其护城河的来源。
领先地位: 并列领先者
The CEO's message describes Tokyo Electron as "one of the world's leading suppliers of semiconductor production equipment" and states a "goal of becoming number one globally" — it does not claim to be the largest supplier overall — while by its own estimate it ranks No. 1 in six charted segments (diffusion furnace, batch deposition, metal deposition, coater/developer, gas chemical etch, wafer prober), No. 2 in plasma etch and bonders, and No. 3 in cleaning.
定价权: 中等
Gross profit margin held in a 44.6%-47.1% range over fiscal 2022-2026, including fiscal 2024's sales decline, but in fiscal 2026 it fell 1.8 points to 45.3% "due to factors such as higher raw material prices and increased labor costs" even as net sales reached a record, and the CEO lists "revising prices appropriately with respect to cost increases caused by inflation" among five initiatives needed to improve the operating margin.
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：tel.com
层级: equipment & EDA
Upstream equipment supplier to chipmakers: fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales of ¥1,775.4 billion went 59% to non-memory (logic, foundry, others), 31% to DRAM and 10% to NAND; by region, China took 34.1%, South Korea 22.3% and Taiwan 20.4% of net sales.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.13 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 bearish（得分 -0.30，信念度 31）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| Cleaning systems (CELLESTA single-wafer and batch cleaning) · Wafer cleaning Single-wafer and batch cleaning that removes residual photoresist, particles and impurities after etch. | 前三 No. 3 in cleaning (single-wafer and batch) by Tokyo Electron's estimate, its lowest rank among the nine segments it charts; cleaning was 9% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales against 13% the year before. | 中等 The report counts cleaning among its four key processes, but its listed frontend competitive advantages single out etch, film deposition and the EUV coater/developer, not cleaning; ranking third, Tokyo Electron faces at least two larger incumbents in the segment. |
| Coater/developers (CLEAN TRACK LITHIUS Pro series) · Lithography track (photoresist coat/develop) Coats the wafer with photoresist and develops the exposed pattern; the report pairs the coater/developer with EUV lithography exposure. | 领先 Ranked No. 1 in coater/developers and holding a "100% share" of coater/developers for EUV lithography, both by Tokyo Electron's estimate; coater/developers were 28% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales of ¥1,775.4 billion. | 深 The report lists "Supporting EUV through coater/developer and optimization technologies" among its frontend competitive advantages, and by Tokyo Electron's own estimate it holds a "100% share" of coater/developers for EUV lithography. |
| Deposition systems (thermal processing, batch ALD/CVD, single-wafer metal deposition) · Film deposition Diffusion furnaces and thermal processing, batch atomic layer and chemical vapor deposition, and single-wafer metal deposition. | 领先 No. 1 in diffusion furnaces (including thermal processing), batch deposition (including ALD and CVD) and metal deposition (single-wafer deposition) by Tokyo Electron's estimate; deposition was 20% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales. | 深 The same frontend competitive advantage — a development system for the etch and film deposition that are "the keys to higher performance and scaling" — covers the line, and the report describes DRAM work on "highly difficult capacitor film deposition" and next-generation transition metal materials for NAND word lines. |
| Etch systems (Tactras and Episode UL plasma etch, Certas LEAGA gas chemical etch) · Plasma and gas chemical etch Plasma etch systems and plasma-less gas chemical etch systems that etch dielectric, silicon and other films along the lithography pattern. | 前三 No. 2 in plasma etch and No. 1 in gas chemical etch by Tokyo Electron's estimate; etch was its largest product line at 36% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales. | 深 The report lists a "powerful development system for achieving the etch and film deposition that are the keys to higher performance and scaling" as a frontend competitive advantage, and describes development of high aspect ratio etch for DRAM and cryogenic etch for deep holes and trenches in NAND. |
| Field Solutions (parts, services, used equipment and modifications) · Installed-base services Maintenance parts and services, used equipment, and modifications for equipment already installed at customer fabs. | 未知 The report gives no market share for services; it reports Field Solutions sales of ¥626.0 billion in fiscal 2026 (¥435.9 billion parts and services, ¥190.0 billion used equipment and modification), up from ¥538.3 billion the year before. | 中等 Field Solutions sells into Tokyo Electron's own installed base — approximately 100,000 units, industry-leading by its estimate and growing by approximately 4,000-6,000 units a year — and the MD&A attributes fiscal 2026 growth to higher customer utilization lifting modifications, maintenance parts and related services for equipment it had previously sold; the report does not say rivals are excluded from servicing that base. |
| Wafer bonding and laser systems (Synapse, Ulucus) · Advanced packaging and bonding Permanent wafer bonding (Synapse Si), wafer bonding/debonding (Synapse V, Synapse Z Plus), and laser edge trimming and extreme laser lift-off (Ulucus L, Ulucus LX), aimed at HBM, stacked flash and stacked logic. | 前三 No. 2 in bonders by Tokyo Electron's estimate; it estimates the bonding process equipment market will grow at a CAGR of over 30% between 2026 and 2030 and exceed 300 billion yen in 2030. | 中等 The report describes its bonders as fusing process technologies such as plasma control and cleaning with mechanical alignment, leveraging frontend know-how; but its newest systems (Synapse Si, Ulucus L and LX) are still in customer evaluation, which it says is "proceeding smoothly". |
| Wafer probers (Prexa, WDF 12DP+) · Wafer test handling Wafer and dicing-frame probers for electrical testing, including the Prexa SDP singulated device prober for known-good-die testing in advanced packaging. | 领先 No. 1 in wafer probers by Tokyo Electron's estimate; wafer probers were 5% of fiscal 2026 new-equipment sales. | 中等 The report's backend competitive advantages cite a "yield improvement approach through fusion of bonding and testing technologies", and it launched the Prexa SDP for the heat-absorption and temperature-control challenges of testing leading-edge devices; it offers no other barrier evidence for the line. |
这些图表绘制的是 Tokyo Electron 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-03-31）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，营收下滑 7%，降至 $15.4B（FY2023→FY2026）; FY2026 净利润为 $3.6B。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-12。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | JPY 85.01 (JPY 77.04–JPY 91.00) · 5 | JPY 898.9B (JPY 890.0B–JPY 920.0B) · 10 | +43% |
| FY 2027 | JPY 344.66 (JPY 285.21–JPY 384.22) · 21 | JPY 3416.8B (JPY 3151.3B–JPY 3650.8B) · 21 | +55% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
下次财报约在 2026-10-30。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
部分近期数字来自 Yahoo Finance，用于填补最新 SEC 申报尚未发布的期间——已折算为美元，并与 SEC 申报期间做过核对。
正在与同业比较…
Nikkei Asia · 2026-10-06 · 财报
Tokyo Electron's operating profit is likely to grow about 60% to a record 1 trillion yen ($6.3 billion) for the fiscal year ending March, with earnings buoyed by strong sales and price increases, Nikkei Asia reported, citing the company's CFO.
Tokyo Electron · 2026-09-17 · 融资
Tokyo Electron set up a sponsored Level I ADR program in the United States, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as depositary. The ADRs (ticker TELWY, 2 ADRs = 1 ordinary share) were expected to start trading over the counter on September 17, 2026 (U.S. Eastern Time), with no capital raising, and the previously unsponsored ADRs are expected to move into the program.
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 财报 | Tokyo Electron earnings — Company-confirmed date. 已确认 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Tokyo Electron earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益超预期 · +6.2% |
