networking & interconnect · 产业指数 9 (排名 #148) ·
价格: 截至 2026-10-30 指数: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-08-06 按季披露（10-Q XBRL）
Applied Optoelectronics manufactures optical transceivers, lasers, and components for datacenter, cable-TV, and telecom networks.
产业敞口 0.5 (Applied Optoelectronics' datacenter transceiver business for hyperscalers is AI-driven, but it retains a sizable cable-TV segment.)
延迟的日终逐合约汇总数据——不是实时盘口，也不是逐笔资金流。买卖方向是根据每个合约最后一笔成交在买卖价差中的位置推断出来的，并非观测到的委托流。除非有报价的合约占当日权利金的四分之一以上，否则公司层面的方向会被隐去，因此下方个别合约有方向时这里也可能为空。看跌/看涨权利金是在我们采集的合约范围内计算的——最近的 6 个到期日、45 天以内，并非完整期权链——而下表最多列出 20 个被标记的合约，所以把这些行加总不会还原出上面的百分比。
标记原因：earnings in 6 days
| 日期 | 合约 | 异常分 | 买卖方向（推断）? | 持仓量变动? | 成交量 | 成交量/持仓量 | 标记 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $55 PUT | 50 | 卖方主动 | +34 | 822 | 5.9× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $60 PUT | 44 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +93 | 483 | 1.7× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $80 CALL | 42 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +21 | 524 | 0.8× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $70 CALL | 36 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +6 | 768 | 3.0× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $65 PUT | 36 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +19 | 269 | 0.6× |
15 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：为 13 日基准的 1.3 倍
看涨 13% / 看跌 87%（按权利金）
结构性 主导了这次看空判断；其余智能体意见分歧，置信度反映的正是这种分歧。
多数投票者倾向一致；结构性 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.67。
一个明确的看空分数；置信度 0.42 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
AOI is a vertically integrated fiber-optics maker whose FY2025 revenue of $455.7M split 53.8% CATV and 42.9% internet datacenter (FY2025 10-K). Its defensible core is laser-fab process IP (MBE+MOCVD, all chips made in Sugar Land) plus highly automated U.S. module production the 10-K pitches as a supply-chain-security advantage. The AI datacenter line is ramping hard — Q2 2026 was a fifth consecutive record revenue quarter at $191.9M with 800G shipments more than doubling sequentially and demand forecast to outpace capacity through mid-2027 (Q2 2026 release) — but AAOI is absent from LightCounting's list of vendors that set records in the $23.8B 2025 transceiver market (InnoLight, Coherent, Eoptolink), so it ramps as a challenger, not a leader. The moat is narrow and concentration-risked: Digicomm was 53.1% and Microsoft 28.8% of 2025 revenue (10-K).
评级: 窄
FY2025 10-K (Item 1, 'Our Technology' and 'Competition'): AOI is vertically integrated down to its own laser chips, fabricated exclusively in Sugar Land, TX with a combined MBE+MOCVD process it believes is 'unique in our industry' and 'difficult and time-consuming for other vendors to replicate'; the same filing calls the optical networking market 'intensely competitive' with larger, better-resourced rivals (Coherent, InnoLight, Eoptolink, Lumentum et al.), so the process edge is real but not dominant — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
类型: 无形资产与知识产权
FY2025 10-K (Item 1, 'Our Technology' / 'Intellectual Property'): the differentiation the company itself leads with is process know-how — proprietary MBE laser fabrication combined with MOCVD ('to our knowledge, we are unique in incorporating MBE processes in the production of communications lasers in high volume'), 199 issued U.S. patents plus 140 in China/Taiwan, and explicit reliance on unpatented trade secrets — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
领先地位: 快速追随者
Bifurcated: the FY2025 10-K self-describes an 'industry-leading position in the CATV market' serving 'a majority of the largest CATV equipment manufacturers,' but in datacenter optics — its AI-relevant line — AAOI is not among the vendors LightCounting's March 2026 quarterly update credits with record 2025 results (InnoLight, Coherent, Eoptolink, Fabrinet, Lumentum), so company-level it reads as a fast follower chasing the 800G/1.6T leaders — https://www.lightcounting.com/newsletter/en/march-2026-quarterly-market-update-380
定价权: 中等
FY2025 10-K (MD&A cost/pricing discussion): gross margin fluctuates with 'decreases in average selling prices,' but in CATV — 53.8% of 2025 revenue — the company states 'we believe we face less downward price pressure than many of our competitors' due to the value of its outsourced design services; FY2025 gross margin was 30.0%, up from 24.8% in 2024 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov
层级: networking & interconnect
Upstream optics supplier to the AI buildout: sells 800G/1.6T transceivers into hyperscale datacenters (Microsoft was 28.8% of 2025 revenue; Oracle 12.4% in 2024) and lasers/turn-key HFC equipment into CATV via distributor Digicomm (53.1% of 2025 revenue), per the FY2025 10-K — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158114/000143774926005875/aaoi20251231_10k.htm
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.06 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 0.10，信念度 0）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| 800G/1.6T datacenter optical transceivers · datacenter optics Optical transceivers (built on in-house lasers and 'light engine' subassemblies) that plug into hyperscaler switches and servers; the company's fastest-growing line, aimed at AI cluster interconnect at 800 Gbps and above. | 挑战者 LightCounting's March 2026 update names InnoLight, Coherent, Eoptolink, Fabrinet and Lumentum as the record-setters in the $23.8B (+55% YoY) 2025 transceiver market without mentioning AAOI (https://www.lightcounting.com/newsletter/en/march-2026-quarterly-market-update-380); AOI's Q2 2026 release shows a fast ramp from a smaller base — 800G volume more than doubled sequentially, total capacity approaching 200,000 units/month with ~650,000/month of 800G+1.6T targeted by end of 2026. | 中等 In-house laser chips and light-engine manufacturing plus highly automated production give an integration and scale-up edge the FY2025 10-K says many competitors lack, but several larger rivals ship the same speed classes at greater volume (10-K 'Competition'). |
| Quantum Bandwidth CATV amplifiers, nodes and headend equipment · CATV / HFC access networks Own-branded (since 2023) DOCSIS 4.0 / 1.8 GHz line — amplifiers, nodes, transmitters and headend gear — sold directly to cable MSOs as well as through equipment vendors; nearly all CATV equipment sold in 2025 meets DOCSIS 4.0 standards per the FY2025 10-K. | 前三 Self-reported basis: the FY2025 10-K claims an 'industry-leading position in the CATV market' serving a majority of the largest CATV equipment makers, and CATV was 53.8% of 2025 revenue; no independent tracker share figure for AOI was found — Dell'Oro sizes the cycle (2026 outside-plant revenue +20% YoY, ~10M new amplifiers through 2028, per its July 30, 2026 release: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cable-operators-accelerate-outside-plant-investments-record-spending-on-amplifiers-expected-according-to-delloro-group-302838555.html) without publishing vendor shares. | 中等 Mixed-signal analog+digital design depth and decades of outsourced-design relationships with CATV equipment vendors, per the FY2025 10-K; Q2 2026 release cites 'high-volume adoption of our 1.8 GHz CATV products.' |
| Semiconductor lasers and light engines · optical components Analog and digital laser chips (fabricated solely in Sugar Land, TX via proprietary MBE + MOCVD) and co-packaged light-engine subassemblies used in the company's own transceivers and sold to third parties. | 未知 No tracker share figure found for merchant laser/component sales; the FY2025 10-K notes most output is consumed internally in AOI's own modules. | 深 FY2025 10-K: 'to our knowledge, we are unique in incorporating MBE processes in the production of communications lasers in high volume, and believe it would be difficult and time-consuming for other vendors to replicate our production technology'; U.S.-domiciled fab is also pitched as a supply-chain advantage. |
| Telecom and FTTH lasers and transceivers · telecom / access optics WDM lasers, subassemblies and transceivers for 5G fronthaul/backhaul NEMs plus PON portfolio (XGS-PON, 25G/50G PON development) for fiber-to-the-home deployments. | 细分市场 FY2025 10-K attributes 53.8% of 2025 revenue to CATV and 42.9% to datacenter, leaving telecom+FTTH only the small remainder of the $455.7M total. | 低 Products here are largely merchant lasers/transceivers sold to NEMs and other transceiver makers in commoditized access markets, per the FY2025 10-K market descriptions. |
这些图表绘制的是 Applied Optoelectronics 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-08-06）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，FY2025 净亏损 $38.2M。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-26。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.14 (USD 0.10–USD 0.19) · 6 | USD 268109400.00 (USD 260747000.00–USD 274700000.00) · 5 | +126% |
| FY 2026 | USD 0.68 (USD 0.47–USD 0.85) · 6 | USD 1.0B (USD 1.0B–USD 1.1B) · 5 | +128% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
下次财报约在 2026-11-05。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
正在与同业比较…
| 机构 | 股数 | 金额 | 环比股数变动 | 占 13F 比例 | 占流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被动 / 指数 | 6,450,270 | $955.7M | -742,059 | 0.0% | 7.60% |
| State Street 被动 / 指数 | 1,497,617 | $221.9M | -146,676 | 0.0% | 1.76% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被动 / 指数 | 17,118 | $2.5M | -550 | 0.0% | 0.02% |
TradingPilot 计算的列（占 13F 比例、占流通股比例）由申报原值推导而来；只有名称、股数与金额是申报原值。
Google News: Applied Optoelectronics · 2026-07-15 · 融资
Applied Optoelectronics shares rallied on news of a Texas manufacturing expansion tied to AI optics demand.
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: AAOI · Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock Looks Discounted On Its Huge Three Year Run
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Lumentum Jumps 8% as StoneX Starts Coverage With $1,200 Target; Applied Optoelectronics and Coherent Climb 6%
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: AAOI · Optics Stocks Tumble as Tech Selloff Deepens Ahead of Earnings: Coherent Tumbles 12%, Applied Optoelectronics Drops 10%, Lumentum Falls 9%
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: FN · Applied Optoelectronics Cratered 50% Over 6 Months: It’s Going to Triple According to 2 Wall Street Pros
2026-10-15 Yahoo Finance: AVGO · Applied Optoelectronics Stock Fell 12% on Hot Inflation. Opportunity or Falling Knife?
2026-10-14 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Dives 9% as AI Funding Fears Hit Optical Stocks; Coherent Slides 7%, Lumentum Drops 7%
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Is Up 175% in 2026 and Lumentum Is Up 164%: Take Profits, or Hold On for the Ride?
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: LITE · One Reason To Buy Applied Optoelectronics Stock Now
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: LITE · Optics Stocks Rally on Sold-Out Optical Capacity Through Early 2029: Applied Optoelectronics and Lumentum Surge 7%, Coherent Climbs 5%
2026-10-09 Yahoo Finance: FN · Applied Optoelectronics Has Fallen Hard for 6 Months: This Wall Street Analyst Expects It’s Going to Double Soon
2026-10-08 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Optics Stocks Tumble as Profit Taking Cuts Into Big Yearly Gains: Applied Optoelectronics Drops 9%, Coherent Falls 5%, Lumentum Slides 4%
2026-10-07 Yahoo Finance: FN · AAOI Stock Gains 17% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?
2026-10-02 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Is Unstoppable: Up 8% Today and 231% This Year, Is AAOI Stock Too Hot to Handle Now?
2026-10-01 Yahoo Finance: COHR · Applied Optoelectronics Is Up 205% This Year. Is It Too Late to Buy AAOI Stock Now?
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 财报 | Applied Optoelectronics earnings — Company-confirmed date. 已确认 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Applied Optoelectronics earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益超预期 · 营收超预期 · +9.2% |
| 2026-05-07 | Applied Optoelectronics earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益不及预期 · -5.5% |
