networking & interconnect · 產業指數 9 (排名 #149) ·
價格: 截至 2026-10-29 指數: 截至 2026-10-29 基本面: 最新申報文件 2026-05-27 按季揭露（10-Q XBRL）
Semtech makes analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, including CopperEdge active-copper-cable and FiberEdge optical ICs for AI datacenter interconnect.
產業曝險 0.3 (Semtech's CopperEdge and FiberEdge signal-integrity ICs target AI datacenter interconnect, but it also has LoRa/IoT and protection businesses.)
延遲的日終逐合約彙總資料——不是即時盤口，也不是逐筆資金流。買賣方向是根據每個合約最後一筆成交在買賣價差中的位置推斷出來的，並非觀測到的委託流。除非有報價的合約佔當日權利金的四分之一以上，否則公司層級的方向會被隱去，因此下方個別合約有方向時這裡也可能為空。買權/賣權權利金是在我們擷取的合約範圍內計算的——最近的 6 個到期日、45 天以內，並非完整選擇權鏈——而下表最多列出 20 個被標記的合約，所以把這些列加總不會還原出上面的百分比。
標記原因：Personal Income & Outlays (PCE) in 1 day
| 日期 | 合約 | 異常分數 | 買賣方向（推斷）? | 未平倉變動? | 成交量 | 成交量/未平倉 | 標記 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | $180 PUT | 30 | — | 0 | 198 | 198.0× | |
| 2026-10-28 | $190 PUT | 27 | — | 0 | 115 | 115.0× |
18 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：為 13 日基準的 0.5 倍
買權 23% / 賣權 77%（按權利金）
新聞 定下了基調，但群體不願下結論——正向傾斜加上薄弱的一致度，因此結論為中性。
多數投票者傾向一致；結構性 投了反對票。方向一致度 0.20。
一個明確的中性分數；信心度 0.00 反映的是代理人之間的一致強度。信心度是信心，不是價格變動的機率。
Semtech is an analog and mixed-signal chipmaker being reshaped around two franchises. The first is AI data-center connectivity in its Signal Integrity segment - FiberEdge TIAs and drivers for optical transceivers and CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables - whose net sales the FY2026 10-K reports at $322,608 thousand in fiscal 2026 against $177,033 thousand in fiscal 2024; the March 2026 HieFo acquisition added foundries that make devices for data-center interconnects. The second is LoRa, the long-range, low-power radio that IoT Analytics ranks as the leading LPWAN technology outside China. Around them sit protection devices, sensing and power products, and the IoT Systems business inherited from Sierra Wireless, whose cellular-module unit Semtech has agreed to sell to Compal Electronics for US$62 million (ABI Research, September 9, 2026, https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/insight/7788486-compal-electronics-takes-semtechs-mantle-t). Momentum is strong: the fiscal Q2 2027 release reports record net sales of $341.9 million, up 33% year over year, and management said data-center revenue hit a record $100 million in the quarter. But the 10-K is frank about limits - rapid ASP erosion, customers that can drop its parts with little notice, 47% of sales to China, competitors that are “much larger and better resourced than we are”, and patents that do not bar entry. Proprietary technology in two growing niches, rather than a locked-in customer base, makes the moat narrow.
評級: 窄
Semtech’s FY2026 10-K (fiscal year ended January 25, 2026) supports a narrow moat and no more. On the durable side, it owns the LoRa® radio franchise - “our LoRa® devices and wireless radio frequency technology” - which IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (https://iot-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/INSIGHTS-RELEASE-LPWAN-Market-2024.pdf) ranks first outside China at 41% of LPWAN connections, and it argues that scarce analog talent “has historically made it more difficult for new suppliers in the analog market to quickly develop products and gain significant market share.” On the limiting side, the same filing says its patents do not “create definitive competitive barriers to entry”, that average selling prices “have historically decreased rapidly”, that some customers “can stop incorporating our products into their own products with limited notice to us and suffer little or no penalty”, and that customers in China (including Hong Kong) were 47% of fiscal 2026 net sales. The record is uneven: its income statement shows gross profit of $296,250 thousand on net sales of $868,758 thousand in fiscal 2024, $456,528 thousand on $909,287 thousand in fiscal 2025 and $542,144 thousand on $1,049,975 thousand in fiscal 2026, and the 10-K says difficulties “have adversely impacted” its ability to realise the benefits of the Sierra Wireless acquisition.
類型: 無形資產與智慧財產
The defensible assets the 10-K describes are intellectual: the LoRa® radio technology, analog and mixed-signal design expertise - “The development of IP and the resulting proprietary products is a critical success factor for us” - and 303 U.S. and 541 foreign patents. The filing itself discounts the patent part (“we do not believe they create definitive competitive barriers to entry”), which leaves the moat in proprietary technology and scarce design know-how rather than in scale or lock-in: Semtech outsources most manufacturing, sold 74% of fiscal 2026 net sales through independent distributors, and its customer agreements “do not require them to purchase a minimum quantity of our products”.
領先地位: 快速追隨者
LoRa, the technology Semtech owns, leads outside China; elsewhere Semtech is contesting the front rank. IoT Analytics’ March 21, 2024 release states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, though “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%” and “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”. In data-center optics, management said on the fiscal Q2 2027 call (TradingKey machine transcript, https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262131465-tradingkey) that at “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, a company figure; an independent September 2024 newsletter (Deep Fundamental) had instead named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. A third-party lead measured at the technology level rather than as Semtech’s own share, a company-reported share that the only independent view contradicts, and no ranking for its other lines do not evidence co-leadership, so the band is fast follower.
定價權: 中等
The 10-K describes a market where prices fall: “In the past, we have reduced the average selling prices of our products in anticipation of future competitive pricing pressures”, and Semtech’s products “are typically differentiated in performance but are priced competitively”. Margins have nonetheless climbed with the data-center mix: the fiscal Q2 2027 release (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000088941/000008894126000028/smtc-07262026x8k991.htm) reports GAAP gross margin of 53.8% against 52.1% a year earlier and guides fiscal Q3 adjusted gross margin to 58.3% +/- 100 bps, or 63.9% excluding the business held for sale. The release does not separate price from mix.
依所引來源做出的人工整理護城河判斷。 來源：sec.gov
層級: networking & interconnect
Semtech sells mostly through independent distributors (74% of fiscal 2026 net sales) to OEMs. In AI data centers its FiberEdge and CopperEdge parts go into the optical transceivers and active copper cables that module and cable makers build, and the 10-K says hyperscale cloud providers “are generally our indirect customers”. Two customers took 14% and 11% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and customers in China (including Hong Kong) 47%.
由這家公司已對應的供應鏈關係及其所屬產業層級推導而來。
護城河先驗在長週期（約 6 個月）投出 +0.06 票，權重為 0.20——該週期上的群體判斷是 neutral（分數 0.03，信念度 0）。
編輯先驗——主觀、未經回測。它有界（±0.6）、低信賴度，且從不對短週期與中週期投票。 檢視它究竟如何投票 →
產品與服務，附編輯判定的市佔區間與技術門檻區間——這些是與所引依據綁定的定性判斷，絕非杜撰的數字。
| 產品 | 市場佔有率 | 技術門檻 |
|---|---|---|
| CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables · Data center copper interconnect ICs Redriver ICs that extend the reach of copper cables in AI data-center racks, now ramping at 1.6T. | 未知 On the fiscal Q2 2027 call management described its CopperEdge solutions as “the de facto industry standard”, and the call summary says 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge products together are expected to be more than half of fiscal Q3 data-center revenue. That is a company characterisation with no figure behind it, and no independent share source was found, so the band is unknown. | 中等 The FY2026 10-K does not discuss CopperEdge by name, but warns of its data-center lines generally that “AI networking requirements may evolve rapidly” and that hyperscalers and well-capitalised competitors may adapt faster. On the call management said it is engaging a number of hyperscalers in cable and onboard applications in the design-win phase at bandwidths up to 3.2T, so the position must be re-won at each generation. |
| FiberEdge optical TIAs and drivers · Data center optical analog ICs Transimpedance amplifiers and laser and modulator drivers for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, within a Signal Integrity portfolio whose high-speed interfaces the 10-K says range from 100Mbps to 1.6Tbps. | 前三 Per TradingKey’s machine transcript of the fiscal Q2 2027 call (August 25, 2026), management said “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, and at 1.6T “we are expecting to exit this fiscal year by January with better than 50% of market share”. Those are the company’s own figures; the only independent view found, Deep Fundamental’s September 27, 2024 deep dive (https://deepfundamental.substack.com/p/deep-dive-optical-module-market), named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. The band is held at top_3 rather than leader. | 中等 Each speed generation is re-won. The FY2026 10-K warns that “AI networking requirements may evolve rapidly, including shifts to higher data rates and alternative technologies”, and that hyperscale cloud providers and “well-capitalized competitors may be better positioned to develop or adapt to new technologies”. Semtech is adding photonic content to defend the socket - the call summary lists gain chips, high-power continuous-wave lasers, semiconductor optical amplifiers and photodiodes, with initial CW laser revenue expected in the first half of fiscal 2028. |
| IoT routers, gateways and connected services · Industrial IoT connectivity systems Cellular routers and gateways plus connected services - SIM and subscription management, device and data management, geolocation and reporting - in the IoT Systems and Connectivity segment; the segment’s cellular-module line is being sold to Compal Electronics. | 未知 The FY2026 10-K says the market for intelligent wireless routers “is quite fragmented depending on the vertical market segment, customer base and level of competition” and that “In the segments where we compete, we believe that our market share is strong” - a company view with no figure - and no third-party share source was found. | 低 The same passage says “competition is intensifying” and that Semtech has launched next-generation products and increased its investment in sales capacity “To strengthen our share position”; its risk factors add competitors “that operate in lower cost jurisdictions than we do, or who receive government support or subsidies that we do not”. |
| LoRa devices (LoRa Edge, LoRa Connect, LoRaPLUS) · LPWAN IoT radios Semtech’s long-range, low-power LoRa® radio chips and platforms used in LoRaWAN networks, smart water and gas metering, asset tracking and Amazon Sidewalk. | 未知 IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (March 21, 2024) states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, while “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%”. Those are shares of the radio technology, not of Semtech’s chip sales, and the release adds that “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”, so they cannot be read as Semtech’s own device share and the band is unknown. Semtech’s LoRa-enabled sales reached a record $58 million in fiscal Q2 2027, per TradingKey’s call summary. | 中等 The technology is Semtech’s own - its 10-K calls them “our LoRa® devices” - and the release forecasts LoRa “to maintain its lead at 36%” of China-excluded LPWAN connections in 2027. The threat is substitution rather than imitation: the release says that “In 2023, licensed LPWAN connections surpassed unlicensed LPWAN connections, even when excluding China’s saturation of NB-IoT”, licensed meaning technologies such as LTE-M and NB-IoT. |
這些圖表繪製的是 Semtech 在其 SEC 申報文件中已申報的損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表（截至 2026-05-27）。每一個數字都是申報原值 XBRL——沒有任何一項是預估。
在已申報的區間內，FY2026 淨損 $40.4M。
分析師一致預期——來自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方預估，截至 2026-10-26。這不是 SEC 申報文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的預測。 來源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期間 | 每股盈餘（預估） | 營收（預估） | 年增率 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 1.13 (USD 1.07–USD 1.17) · 15 | USD 416428910.00 (USD 410100000.00–USD 420000000.00) · 14 | +56% |
| FY 2027 | USD 3.65 (USD 3.51–USD 4.03) · 15 | USD 1.5B (USD 1.5B–USD 1.6B) · 15 | +43% |
每個數字顯示一致預期平均值、可得時的（最低–最高）區間，以及 · 後面給出該預估背後的分析師人數。
下次財報約在 2026-11-23。
我們的模型在中週期上對這檔股票偏向 Bullish——這是對市場方向的判斷，不是對獲利的預測。檢視「訊號」分頁。
正在與同業比較…
| 機構 | 股數 | 金額 | 季增減股數 | 佔 13F 比例 | 佔流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被動 / 指數 | 9,749,439 | $1.6B | -4,472,780 | 0.0% | 10.45% |
| State Street 被動 / 指數 | 3,389,044 | $548.4M | -670,222 | 0.0% | 3.63% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大師 | 207,116 | $33.5M | 207,116 | 0.0% | 0.22% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被動 / 指數 | 182,797 | $29.6M | 86,124 | 0.0% | 0.20% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大師 | 15,294 | $2.5M | -61,641 | 0.0% | 0.02% |
TradingPilot 計算的欄位（佔 13F 比例、佔流通股比例）由申報原值推導而來；只有名稱、股數與金額是申報原值。
Tower Semiconductor · 2026-10-13 · 合作
Tower Semiconductor and Semtech announced an expanded multi-year agreement under which Semtech will invest in securing dedicated silicon germanium (SiGe) capacity at Tower to support demand for AI data center optical interconnect components. The secured capacity spans Tower's fabs in the United States, Israel and Japan.
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · NVTS vs. SMTC: Which Semiconductor Stock Should You Buy Right Now?
2026-10-24 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Brings 5G Network Slicing, FIPS 140-3 to IACP 2026
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Can Strong Momentum in LoRa Boost Semtech's Long-Term Growth?
2026-10-15 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - SEMTECH CORP (0000088941) (Filer)
2026-10-15 Business Wire AI · Semtech Outlines Data Center Growth Strategy at Analyst Day
2026-10-13 PR Newswire Tech · Did Semtech Corporation Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: MTSI · Can Semtech's 1.6T Ramp Accelerate its Data Center Growth?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Zacks.com featured highlights include Commerce.com, Motorsport Games, Semtech and Telos
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Rises 154% YTD: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
2026-10-12 Business Wire AI · Semtech Corporation to Host Data Center Analyst Day on October 15, 2026
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Corporation to Host Data Center Analyst Day on October 15, 2026
影響 = 公司顯著度層級（高/中由圖譜中心度與規模自動判定；低僅用於人工整理的次要事件），並非對波動幅度的預測。
| 日期 | 類型 | 事件 | 影響 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-25 | 財報 | Semtech earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. 預估 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影響 | 結果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Semtech earnings 已確認 | 中 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · +10.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | Semtech earnings 已確認 | 中 | 每股盈餘優於預期 · -4.4% |
