networking & interconnect · 产业指数 9 (排名 #150) ·
价格: 截至 2026-11-02 指数: 截至 2026-11-02 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-05-27 按季披露（10-Q XBRL）
Semtech makes analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, including CopperEdge active-copper-cable and FiberEdge optical ICs for AI datacenter interconnect.
产业敞口 0.3 (Semtech's CopperEdge and FiberEdge signal-integrity ICs target AI datacenter interconnect, but it also has LoRa/IoT and protection businesses.)
延迟的日终逐合约汇总数据——不是实时盘口，也不是逐笔资金流。买卖方向是根据每个合约最后一笔成交在买卖价差中的位置推断出来的，并非观测到的委托流。除非有报价的合约占当日权利金的四分之一以上，否则公司层面的方向会被隐去，因此下方个别合约有方向时这里也可能为空。看跌/看涨权利金是在我们采集的合约范围内计算的——最近的 6 个到期日、45 天以内，并非完整期权链——而下表最多列出 20 个被标记的合约，所以把这些行加总不会还原出上面的百分比。
标记原因：earnings in 21 days
| 日期 | 合约 | 异常分 | 买卖方向（推断）? | 持仓量变动? | 成交量 | 成交量/持仓量 | 标记 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | $125 CALL | 48 | 买方主动 | +118 | 156 | 1.3× |
19 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：为 13 日基准的 0.5 倍
看涨 38% / 看跌 62%（按权利金）
新闻 定下了基调，但群体不愿下结论——正向倾斜叠加薄弱的一致度，因此结论为中性。
多数投票者倾向一致；结构性 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.20。
一个明确的中性分数；置信度 0.00 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
Semtech is an analog and mixed-signal chipmaker being reshaped around two franchises. The first is AI data-center connectivity in its Signal Integrity segment - FiberEdge TIAs and drivers for optical transceivers and CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables - whose net sales the FY2026 10-K reports at $322,608 thousand in fiscal 2026 against $177,033 thousand in fiscal 2024; the March 2026 HieFo acquisition added foundries that make devices for data-center interconnects. The second is LoRa, the long-range, low-power radio that IoT Analytics ranks as the leading LPWAN technology outside China. Around them sit protection devices, sensing and power products, and the IoT Systems business inherited from Sierra Wireless, whose cellular-module unit Semtech has agreed to sell to Compal Electronics for US$62 million (ABI Research, September 9, 2026, https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/insight/7788486-compal-electronics-takes-semtechs-mantle-t). Momentum is strong: the fiscal Q2 2027 release reports record net sales of $341.9 million, up 33% year over year, and management said data-center revenue hit a record $100 million in the quarter. But the 10-K is frank about limits - rapid ASP erosion, customers that can drop its parts with little notice, 47% of sales to China, competitors that are “much larger and better resourced than we are”, and patents that do not bar entry. Proprietary technology in two growing niches, rather than a locked-in customer base, makes the moat narrow.
评级: 窄
Semtech’s FY2026 10-K (fiscal year ended January 25, 2026) supports a narrow moat and no more. On the durable side, it owns the LoRa® radio franchise - “our LoRa® devices and wireless radio frequency technology” - which IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (https://iot-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/INSIGHTS-RELEASE-LPWAN-Market-2024.pdf) ranks first outside China at 41% of LPWAN connections, and it argues that scarce analog talent “has historically made it more difficult for new suppliers in the analog market to quickly develop products and gain significant market share.” On the limiting side, the same filing says its patents do not “create definitive competitive barriers to entry”, that average selling prices “have historically decreased rapidly”, that some customers “can stop incorporating our products into their own products with limited notice to us and suffer little or no penalty”, and that customers in China (including Hong Kong) were 47% of fiscal 2026 net sales. The record is uneven: its income statement shows gross profit of $296,250 thousand on net sales of $868,758 thousand in fiscal 2024, $456,528 thousand on $909,287 thousand in fiscal 2025 and $542,144 thousand on $1,049,975 thousand in fiscal 2026, and the 10-K says difficulties “have adversely impacted” its ability to realise the benefits of the Sierra Wireless acquisition.
类型: 无形资产与知识产权
The defensible assets the 10-K describes are intellectual: the LoRa® radio technology, analog and mixed-signal design expertise - “The development of IP and the resulting proprietary products is a critical success factor for us” - and 303 U.S. and 541 foreign patents. The filing itself discounts the patent part (“we do not believe they create definitive competitive barriers to entry”), which leaves the moat in proprietary technology and scarce design know-how rather than in scale or lock-in: Semtech outsources most manufacturing, sold 74% of fiscal 2026 net sales through independent distributors, and its customer agreements “do not require them to purchase a minimum quantity of our products”.
领先地位: 快速追随者
LoRa, the technology Semtech owns, leads outside China; elsewhere Semtech is contesting the front rank. IoT Analytics’ March 21, 2024 release states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, though “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%” and “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”. In data-center optics, management said on the fiscal Q2 2027 call (TradingKey machine transcript, https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262131465-tradingkey) that at “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, a company figure; an independent September 2024 newsletter (Deep Fundamental) had instead named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. A third-party lead measured at the technology level rather than as Semtech’s own share, a company-reported share that the only independent view contradicts, and no ranking for its other lines do not evidence co-leadership, so the band is fast follower.
定价权: 中等
The 10-K describes a market where prices fall: “In the past, we have reduced the average selling prices of our products in anticipation of future competitive pricing pressures”, and Semtech’s products “are typically differentiated in performance but are priced competitively”. Margins have nonetheless climbed with the data-center mix: the fiscal Q2 2027 release (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000088941/000008894126000028/smtc-07262026x8k991.htm) reports GAAP gross margin of 53.8% against 52.1% a year earlier and guides fiscal Q3 adjusted gross margin to 58.3% +/- 100 bps, or 63.9% excluding the business held for sale. The release does not separate price from mix.
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov
层级: networking & interconnect
Semtech sells mostly through independent distributors (74% of fiscal 2026 net sales) to OEMs. In AI data centers its FiberEdge and CopperEdge parts go into the optical transceivers and active copper cables that module and cable makers build, and the 10-K says hyperscale cloud providers “are generally our indirect customers”. Two customers took 14% and 11% of fiscal 2026 net sales, and customers in China (including Hong Kong) 47%.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.06 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 0.03，信念度 0）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| CopperEdge redrivers for active copper cables · Data center copper interconnect ICs Redriver ICs that extend the reach of copper cables in AI data-center racks, now ramping at 1.6T. | 未知 On the fiscal Q2 2027 call management described its CopperEdge solutions as “the de facto industry standard”, and the call summary says 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge products together are expected to be more than half of fiscal Q3 data-center revenue. That is a company characterisation with no figure behind it, and no independent share source was found, so the band is unknown. | 中等 The FY2026 10-K does not discuss CopperEdge by name, but warns of its data-center lines generally that “AI networking requirements may evolve rapidly” and that hyperscalers and well-capitalised competitors may adapt faster. On the call management said it is engaging a number of hyperscalers in cable and onboard applications in the design-win phase at bandwidths up to 3.2T, so the position must be re-won at each generation. |
| FiberEdge optical TIAs and drivers · Data center optical analog ICs Transimpedance amplifiers and laser and modulator drivers for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, within a Signal Integrity portfolio whose high-speed interfaces the 10-K says range from 100Mbps to 1.6Tbps. | 前三 Per TradingKey’s machine transcript of the fiscal Q2 2027 call (August 25, 2026), management said “800 gig, we had the market share about 18%. So over the 2 years, we have grown the market share well over 50% for 800 gig”, and at 1.6T “we are expecting to exit this fiscal year by January with better than 50% of market share”. Those are the company’s own figures; the only independent view found, Deep Fundamental’s September 27, 2024 deep dive (https://deepfundamental.substack.com/p/deep-dive-optical-module-market), named Marvell and MACOM “the dominant players” in drivers and TIAs and said Semtech “has struggled to keep pace since the transition to 200G”. The band is held at top_3 rather than leader. | 中等 Each speed generation is re-won. The FY2026 10-K warns that “AI networking requirements may evolve rapidly, including shifts to higher data rates and alternative technologies”, and that hyperscale cloud providers and “well-capitalized competitors may be better positioned to develop or adapt to new technologies”. Semtech is adding photonic content to defend the socket - the call summary lists gain chips, high-power continuous-wave lasers, semiconductor optical amplifiers and photodiodes, with initial CW laser revenue expected in the first half of fiscal 2028. |
| IoT routers, gateways and connected services · Industrial IoT connectivity systems Cellular routers and gateways plus connected services - SIM and subscription management, device and data management, geolocation and reporting - in the IoT Systems and Connectivity segment; the segment’s cellular-module line is being sold to Compal Electronics. | 未知 The FY2026 10-K says the market for intelligent wireless routers “is quite fragmented depending on the vertical market segment, customer base and level of competition” and that “In the segments where we compete, we believe that our market share is strong” - a company view with no figure - and no third-party share source was found. | 低 The same passage says “competition is intensifying” and that Semtech has launched next-generation products and increased its investment in sales capacity “To strengthen our share position”; its risk factors add competitors “that operate in lower cost jurisdictions than we do, or who receive government support or subsidies that we do not”. |
| LoRa devices (LoRa Edge, LoRa Connect, LoRaPLUS) · LPWAN IoT radios Semtech’s long-range, low-power LoRa® radio chips and platforms used in LoRaWAN networks, smart water and gas metering, asset tracking and Amazon Sidewalk. | 未知 IoT Analytics’ LPWAN Market 2024 release (March 21, 2024) states “When excluding all LPWAN data from China, LoRa has the leading share of global LPWAN connections at 41%—more than double NB-IoT’s share”, while “Globally, NB-IoT has the largest share of LPWAN connections at approximately 54%”. Those are shares of the radio technology, not of Semtech’s chip sales, and the release adds that “LoRa’s share of LPWAN connections is decreasing”, so they cannot be read as Semtech’s own device share and the band is unknown. Semtech’s LoRa-enabled sales reached a record $58 million in fiscal Q2 2027, per TradingKey’s call summary. | 中等 The technology is Semtech’s own - its 10-K calls them “our LoRa® devices” - and the release forecasts LoRa “to maintain its lead at 36%” of China-excluded LPWAN connections in 2027. The threat is substitution rather than imitation: the release says that “In 2023, licensed LPWAN connections surpassed unlicensed LPWAN connections, even when excluding China’s saturation of NB-IoT”, licensed meaning technologies such as LTE-M and NB-IoT. |
这些图表绘制的是 Semtech 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-05-27）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，FY2026 净亏损 $40.4M。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-11-02。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Oct 2026 | USD 1.13 (USD 1.07–USD 1.17) · 15 | USD 416428910.00 (USD 410100000.00–USD 420000000.00) · 14 | +56% |
| FY 2027 | USD 3.65 (USD 3.51–USD 4.03) · 15 | USD 1.5B (USD 1.5B–USD 1.6B) · 15 | +43% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
下次财报约在 2026-11-23。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Bullish——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
正在与同业比较…
| 机构 | 股数 | 金额 | 环比股数变动 | 占 13F 比例 | 占流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被动 / 指数 | 9,749,439 | $1.6B | -4,472,780 | 0.0% | 10.45% |
| State Street 被动 / 指数 | 3,389,044 | $548.4M | -670,222 | 0.0% | 3.63% |
| Renaissance Technologies 大师 | 207,116 | $33.5M | 207,116 | 0.0% | 0.22% |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被动 / 指数 | 182,797 | $29.6M | 86,124 | 0.0% | 0.20% |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大师 | 15,294 | $2.5M | -61,641 | 0.0% | 0.02% |
TradingPilot 计算的列（占 13F 比例、占流通股比例）由申报原值推导而来；只有名称、股数与金额是申报原值。
Tower Semiconductor · 2026-10-13 · 合作
Tower Semiconductor and Semtech announced an expanded multi-year agreement under which Semtech will invest in securing dedicated silicon germanium (SiGe) capacity at Tower to support demand for AI data center optical interconnect components. The secured capacity spans Tower's fabs in the United States, Israel and Japan.
2026-10-30 PR Newswire Energy · SMTC Recognized with Frost & Sullivan's 2026 North America Company of the Year Recognition for Mid-tier Electronic Manufacturing Services
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · NVTS vs. SMTC: Which Semiconductor Stock Should You Buy Right Now?
2026-10-24 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Brings 5G Network Slicing, FIPS 140-3 to IACP 2026
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Can Strong Momentum in LoRa Boost Semtech's Long-Term Growth?
2026-10-15 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - SEMTECH CORP (0000088941) (Filer)
2026-10-15 Business Wire AI · Semtech Outlines Data Center Growth Strategy at Analyst Day
2026-10-13 PR Newswire Tech · Did Semtech Corporation Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: MTSI · Can Semtech's 1.6T Ramp Accelerate its Data Center Growth?
2026-10-13 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Zacks.com featured highlights include Commerce.com, Motorsport Games, Semtech and Telos
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Rises 154% YTD: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
2026-10-12 Business Wire AI · Semtech Corporation to Host Data Center Analyst Day on October 15, 2026
2026-10-12 Yahoo Finance: SMTC · Semtech Corporation to Host Data Center Analyst Day on October 15, 2026
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-23 | 财报 | Semtech earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — consensus estimate. 预估 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Semtech earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益超预期 · +10.4% |
| 2026-05-26 | Semtech earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益超预期 · -4.4% |
