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Microsoft (MSFT) ☆

cloud & hyperscalers · 产业指数 31 (排名 #8) · $507.12 (-2.80%) · 市值 $3.8T

ⓘ 数据时效

价格: 截至 2026-11-02 指数: 截至 2026-11-02 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-10-28 按季披露(10-Q XBRL)

超大规模云厂商(Azure),OpenAI 的关键合作伙伴,并将前沿模型分发到企业软件中。

信号

信号: 截至 2026-10-13

短期(约 2 周)

54%
看多
置信度 54
  • 新闻— Recent sentiment 0.30 vs 120d baseline 0.24 across 8 stories.[news][news][news]
  • 期权持仓结构— Delayed per-contract options — call premium 77% / put 23% (net skew 0.53), unusualness 39/100. Context: matches: Microsoft to scale Azure Maia to multi-gigawa….[options]
  • 价格动量— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.70, confidence 0.90 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 内部推导
  • 结构性— Industry Index 33.0 (rising 5.8 over window) — structural tailwind.[index] · 内部推导

中期(约 3 个月)

40%
看多
置信度 40
  • 增长趋势— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • 价格动量— Technical uptrend across short+medium horizon(s) — vote 0.70, confidence 0.90 from 11 indicator sub-signal(s).[price] · 内部推导
  • 聪明钱— 1 filer(s) accumulating, 5 trimming in 2026Q2 (value-weighted net -0.12).[holding][holding][holding][holding][holding]
  • 结构性— Industry Index 33.0 (rising 5.8 over window) — structural tailwind.[index] · 内部推导

长期(约 6 个月)

64%
看多
置信度 64
  • 增长趋势— Revenue 18% YoY (accelerating), net margin expanding.[filing]
  • moat— Editorial prior (subjective, NOT backtested): wide moat / co_leader / strong pricing ⇒ wider/leading long-horizon tilt 0.35. Bounded, low-confidence input.[moat: Editorial moat profile — msft — wide moat, co_leader, strong pricing (as of 2026-07-29)]
  • 结构性— Industry Index 33.0 (rising 5.8 over window) — structural tailwind.[index] · 内部推导

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关系网络

正在加载关系图谱…
  • Harvey — 合作伙伴
  • Legora — 合作伙伴
  • Luminance — 合作伙伴
  • Datadog — 竞争对手
  • Synopsys — 合作伙伴
  • Palo Alto Networks — 竞争对手
  • Coca-Cola — 客户
  • Walmart — 客户
  • AMD — 供应商
  • Applied Optoelectronics — 供应商
  • Constellation Energy — 供应商
  • CoreWeave — 供应商 · 62% · 出处披露
  • Credo Technology — 供应商
  • IREN — 供应商
  • Lambda — 供应商
  • Anthropic — 合作伙伴
  • C3.ai — 合作伙伴
  • Cloudflare — 合作伙伴
  • d-Matrix — 被投公司
  • Mistral AI — 合作伙伴
  • Nebius Group — 供应商
  • NetApp — 合作伙伴
  • Wiwynn — 供应商
  • OpenAI — 供应商 · 50% · 编辑估算
  • NVIDIA — 供应商 · 60% · 编辑估算
  • OpenAI — 被投公司
  • OpenAI — 客户 · 50% · 编辑估算
  • Arista Networks — 供应商 · 40% · 编辑估算

主要关系

  • Harvey — 合作伙伴 · Harvey runs on Azure OpenAI Service infrastructure and fine-tunes models jointly with Microsoft to customise them per customer. 来源:microsoft.com
  • Legora — 合作伙伴 · Legora runs on Microsoft Azure using Azure OpenAI Service, and integrates into Microsoft Word and SharePoint as its working surface. 来源:microsoft.com
  • Luminance — 合作伙伴 · Luminance delivers AI-powered contract review and negotiation inside Microsoft Word, making a Microsoft surface its primary negotiation entry point. 来源:luminance.com
  • Datadog — 竞争对手 · Datadog names Microsoft among the diversified technology and systems management vendors it competes with in on-premise infrastructure monitoring. 来源:sec.gov
  • Synopsys — 合作伙伴 · Synopsys Cloud's EDA Software-as-a-Service solution was developed in partnership with Microsoft Azure. 来源:sec.gov
  • Palo Alto Networks — 竞争对手 · Palo Alto Networks names Microsoft among the large companies that incorporate security features into their products and compete with it. 来源:sec.gov
  • Coca-Cola — 客户 · Under a five-year strategic partnership announced 23 April 2024, Coca-Cola made a $1.1 billion commitment to the Microsoft Cloud, and the two companies agreed to jointly experiment with Azure OpenAI Service to develop generative AI use cases across business functions and to test how Copilot for Microsoft 365 could improve workplace productivity, expanding on the $250 million agreement the release says Coca-Cola initially announced with Microsoft in 2020. 来源:coca-colacompany.com
  • Walmart — 客户 · Walmart's redesigned generative-AI search combines Walmart proprietary data and technology with large language models including those available in Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service plus retail-specific models built by Walmart, and its associate-facing "My Assistant" app leverages Walmart proprietary data, technology and large language models in Azure OpenAI Service. 来源:blogs.microsoft.com
  • AMD — 供应商 · Microsoft Azure deploys AMD Instinct MI300X accelerators to run AI workloads including OpenAI models. 来源:ir.amd.com
  • Applied Optoelectronics — 供应商 · Applied Optoelectronics supplies datacenter optical transceivers to Microsoft, which has accounted for a significant portion of its data-center revenue. 来源:finance.yahoo.com
  • Constellation Energy — 供应商 · Constellation Energy signed a 20-year PPA to restart the Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island Unit 1), dedicating about 835 MW of nuclear power to Microsoft's data centers. 来源:constellationenergy.com
  • CoreWeave — 供应商 · 62% 依赖度 · Microsoft accounted for about 62% of CoreWeave's 2024 revenue as its largest AI-compute customer. 来源:sec.gov
  • Credo Technology — 供应商 · Microsoft is a primary customer for Credo's active electrical cables used in AI data centers. 来源:cnbc.com
  • IREN — 供应商 · IREN signed a five-year, ~$9.7 billion contract to provide Microsoft with NVIDIA GB300 GPU cloud capacity. 来源:globenewswire.com
  • Lambda — 供应商 · Lambda has a multibillion-dollar agreement to deploy tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs as AI cloud capacity for Microsoft. 来源:techcrunch.com
  • Anthropic — 合作伙伴 · Microsoft agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic and make Claude available on Azure as Anthropic committed $30 billion of Azure compute. 来源:blogs.microsoft.com
  • C3.ai — 合作伙伴 · C3 AI and Microsoft formed a strategic alliance making Azure the preferred cloud for C3 AI applications and C3 AI a preferred AI-app provider on Azure. 来源:c3.ai
  • Cloudflare — 合作伙伴 · Cloudflare partnered with Microsoft (and Hugging Face) to bring machine-learning models to its edge network. 来源:mpost.io
  • d-Matrix — 被投公司 · Microsoft's venture arm M12 is an investor in d-Matrix, participating in its funding rounds including the Series C. 来源:d-matrix.ai
  • Mistral AI — 合作伙伴 · Microsoft made a roughly €15 million investment in Mistral AI and hosts its models on Azure. 来源:techcrunch.com
  • Nebius Group — 供应商 · Nebius signed a five-year deal to supply Microsoft with dedicated GPU cloud capacity worth at least $17.4 billion. 来源:redmondmag.com
  • NetApp — 合作伙伴 · Azure NetApp Files is a Microsoft Azure first-party storage service jointly engineered with NetApp and sold/supported by Microsoft. 来源:learn.microsoft.com
  • Wiwynn — 供应商 · Wiwynn supplies hyperscale cloud servers to Microsoft, one of its largest customers, with over 90% of revenue from hyperscalers. 来源:en.wikipedia.org
  • OpenAI — 供应商 · 50% 依赖度 编辑估算 · OpenAI's models power Microsoft Copilot across Microsoft 365, GitHub and Bing. 来源:blogs.microsoft.com
  • NVIDIA — 供应商 · 60% 依赖度 编辑估算 · Microsoft 是 NVIDIA 最大的客户之一,在 Azure AI 基础设施中广泛部署其 GPU;NVIDIA 的 10-K 披露其营收高度集中于大型云服务商。 来源:sec.gov
  • OpenAI — 被投公司 · Microsoft has invested approximately $13B in OpenAI across 2019-2023 and holds economic interests in its capped-profit entity. 来源:blogs.microsoft.com
  • OpenAI — 客户 · 50% 依赖度 编辑估算 · Azure has been OpenAI's primary compute provider since 2019; OpenAI diversified to additional providers from 2025 while Azure remains a major share. 来源:blogs.microsoft.com
  • Arista Networks — 供应商 · 40% 依赖度 编辑估算 · Arista's 10-K discloses Microsoft as a >10% customer; Arista switches form part of Azure's AI data-center network fabric. 来源:sec.gov

期权持仓结构

延迟 · 汇总: 截至 2026-11-02
  • 看涨与看跌成交量:237,077 张看涨 · 153,824 张看跌 — 偏向 +21.3%,偏向看涨
  • 成交量/未平仓量周转: 1.64×
  • 权利金(名义金额代理):$29.1M 看涨 · $128.1M 看跌 — 偏向 -63.0%,偏向看跌
  • 价外偏斜:+64.6%,偏向价外看涨
  • 隐含波动率偏斜(看跌 − 看涨): +6.8%