AI applications & software · 产业指数 12 (排名 #88) ·
价格: 截至 2026-11-02 指数: 截至 2026-11-02 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-08-06 按季披露（10-Q XBRL）
Cloudflare runs a global edge network for content delivery, security, and serverless compute, including GPU-backed Workers AI inference.
产业敞口 0.3 (Workers AI and GPU inference are a growing edge-AI initiative, but the core business remains CDN, security, and networking.)
延迟的日终逐合约汇总数据——不是实时盘口，也不是逐笔资金流。买卖方向是根据每个合约最后一笔成交在买卖价差中的位置推断出来的，并非观测到的委托流。除非有报价的合约占当日权利金的四分之一以上，否则公司层面的方向会被隐去，因此下方个别合约有方向时这里也可能为空。看跌/看涨权利金是在我们采集的合约范围内计算的——最近的 6 个到期日、45 天以内，并非完整期权链——而下表最多列出 20 个被标记的合约，所以把这些行加总不会还原出上面的百分比。
标记原因：earnings in 3 days
| 日期 | 合约 | 异常分 | 买卖方向（推断）? | 持仓量变动? | 成交量 | 成交量/持仓量 | 标记 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | $230 PUT | 82 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +2 | 1,367 | 54.7× | |
| 2026-11-02 | $215 PUT | 78 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +28 | 1,260 | 36.0× | |
| 2026-11-02 | $295 CALL | 61 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +13 | 107 | 4.7× | |
| 2026-11-02 | $282.5 CALL | 39 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | — | 58 | 19.3× |
16 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：为 13 日基准的 0.8 倍
看涨 29% / 看跌 71%（按权利金）
新闻 主导了这次看空判断；其余智能体意见分歧，置信度反映的正是这种分歧。
多数投票者倾向一致；新闻 投了反对票。方向一致度 0.51。
一个明确的看空分数；置信度 0.29 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
Cloudflare sells security, performance and connectivity as services delivered from one global anycast network rather than from boxes at a customer's edge. The FY2025 10-K frames the market as a consolidation away from enterprises that 'string together a diverse set of on-premises hardware boxes from different vendors' and away from 'stringing together multiple point-cloud solutions that only address specific network needs', toward one integrated provider it calls the Connectivity Cloud, and places Cloudflare as 'a leader in this Connectivity Cloud category'. The economics are unusual: idle capacity funds a free tier, the free tier buys global traffic scale, that scale makes Cloudflare a peering partner ISPs want, and peering cuts colocation and bandwidth cost - a loop the filing says 'become[s] even more powerful' as the network grows. Independent measurement confirms where that loop has already settled the market: W3Techs on 2026-09-17 shows an 85.0% reverse-proxy share and the largest authoritative-DNS footprint at 18.5% of all websites. Commercially the company ended 2025 with roughly 332,000 paying customers in more than 190 countries and 4,298 large customers, up from 2,756 two years earlier, with no customer above 10% of revenue. The contested half of the story is the growth half: the SASE platform competes with established cloud-security, email-security and SD-WAN vendors, and the developer platform competes for storage and compute against hyperscalers, markets where the 10-K's own risk factors concede rivals have greater name recognition, larger customer bases and 'more mature products and services developed for large customers'. The core is defended; the adjacencies are being fought for, and FY2025 gross margin at a nine-year low of 74.5% is the first visible cost of building GPU capacity for that fight.
评级: 宽
The band is earned by a measured share gap on a hard-to-rebuild asset, not asserted. W3Techs' 17 September 2026 survey (w3techs.com/technologies/overview/proxy) puts Cloudflare in front of 25.8% of all websites, an 85.0% share of the reverse-proxy market, against Amazon CloudFront at 5.5%, Fastly at 3.0% and Akamai at 2.1% - roughly fifteen times the nearest rival. The FY2025 10-K filed 2026-02-26 describes what a challenger would have to reproduce to contest that: a network that 'spans more than 330 cities in over 125 countries worldwide and interconnects with over 13,000 networks globally', architected to 'run every service on every server in every city' - capacity and peering accumulated city by city over a decade, not bought in a quarter. The position has been monetised without margin decay: SEC XBRL fundamentals on this site show GAAP gross margin inside a 74.5-78.7% band in every fiscal year from FY2017 to FY2025 while revenue grew from $134.9M to $2,167.9M, and Cloudflare's Q4/FY2025 results release of 2026-02-10 (cloudflare.com/press/press-releases/2026/cloudflare-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results/) reports remaining performance obligations up 48% and new annual contract value up nearly 50% year over year. What stops this being a certainty rather than a judgement: the dominant share sits in application services, while SASE and developer compute are contested by vendors the 10-K itself concedes hold 'substantially greater financial, technical, and other resources.'
类型: 成本规模
The FY2025 10-K states the mechanism outright, and it is a unit-cost curve rather than a user-to-user network: 'We have chosen to utilize this idle capacity to create a free tier of service which has generated substantial global scale for us. In turn, this scale makes us attractive partners for Internet Service Providers (ISPs) globally, which reduces our co-location and bandwidth costs. As our network grows, these dynamics become even more powerful.' The same section explains why the curve applies to every line rather than one: the architecture lets Cloudflare 'deploy standard, commodity hardware' and run 'every service on every server in every city', so a new product reaches 330+ cities at near-zero incremental capital. That is what lets the filing claim Workers is offered 'at prices that are highly competitive with public cloud vendors' while FY2025 GAAP gross margin still printed 74.5%. Switching costs (traffic routed through Cloudflare, DNS delegated to it) and threat-intelligence feedback from aggregate traffic sit on top, but the filing-stated primary source is cost falling as the network grows.
领先地位: 明确领先者
Leadership is measured, not inferred. W3Techs on 2026-09-17 records an 85.0% reverse-proxy market share against 5.5% for Amazon CloudFront and 2.1% for Akamai, and makes Cloudflare the largest authoritative-DNS provider at 18.5% of all websites versus 9.9% for the next-placed GoDaddy Group. The FY2025 10-K reports the enterprise side moving the same way - 4,298 large customers at 2025 year-end against 3,497 a year earlier and 2,756 in 2023 - and the Q4/FY2025 results release (cloudflare.com/press/press-releases/2026/cloudflare-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results/) cites the largest annual contract value deal in company history at about $42.5M per year. The band is for the application-services core the share data covers; in SASE and in serverless compute Cloudflare is a challenger to larger incumbents, and no independent placement naming Cloudflare in those markets was obtained for this profile.
定价权: 中等
Evidence cuts both ways, which is why this is not the top band. For it: GAAP gross margin has never left a 74.5-78.7% band across FY2017-FY2025 (SEC XBRL fundamentals on this site) even as revenue compounded 16x, and the Q4/FY2025 results release (cloudflare.com/press/press-releases/2026/cloudflare-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2025-financial-results/) shows customers committing more rather than less - RPO +48% year over year and new ACV up nearly 50%. Against it: FY2025's 74.5% is the lowest reading in that nine-year series, a large permanent free tier anchors the entry price, the 10-K positions Workers 'at prices that are highly competitive with public cloud vendors', and the competition risk factor warns that larger rivals can 'sell products and services with which we compete at zero or negative margins, offer fee waivers and reductions or other economic and non-economic concessions', with competitive pressure that 'may result in price reductions, fewer subscriptions, reduced revenue and gross margin'.
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov
层级: AI applications & software
Cloudflare sits between end users and whatever hosts the application - origin data centre, public cloud or SaaS - so it is a control layer in front of infrastructure rather than infrastructure a workload runs on, which the 10-K argues is the point: customers 'concerned about being locked in to any one public cloud provider' want policy enforced by 'an independent and integrated services provider'. Two AI-era roles follow from that position. As a supplier, the filing describes 'ongoing deployment of graphics processing units (GPUs) across our global network of servers' behind Workers AI, Vectorize and AI Gateway, putting inference next to the user instead of in a region. As a gatekeeper, the application-services suite now exists in part to 'easily identify, block and control access from AI crawlers and AI agents and operators' and underpins announced efforts to let content creators monetise how those crawlers reach their work - which makes Cloudflare a toll point between AI model builders and the open web.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.38 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 0.04，信念度 0）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| Application Services · Application security, performance and delivery (CDN, WAF, DDoS, bot management, DNS resolution) The original suite and revenue core: Web Application Firewall, Bot Management and Turnstile, layer 3/4/7 DDoS mitigation, API Shield, SSL/TLS and certificate management, Page Shield, content delivery, load balancing, Smart Shield, video stream delivery and Waiting Room, delivered from the same network as everything else. | 领先 W3Techs' reverse-proxy survey dated 17 September 2026 reports Cloudflare in front of 25.8% of all websites it monitors, an 85.0% share of the reverse-proxy services market, with Amazon CloudFront second at 5.5%, Fastly at 3.0%, DDoS-Guard at 2.4% and Akamai at 2.1%. | 深 Replication is physical and contractual, not a software project. The FY2025 10-K describes a network spanning 'more than 330 cities in over 125 countries' interconnected with 'over 13,000 networks globally, including major ISPs, cloud services, and enterprises'; DDoS absorption and cache-hit latency are functions of exactly that footprint, and the filing notes the free tier's traffic scale is what makes ISPs willing to peer and so keeps colocation and bandwidth cost down as it expands. |
| Authoritative DNS · Managed DNS and domain services Authoritative DNS for customer domains plus the 1.1.1.1 public resolver and Cloudflare Registrar; in practice the first product many customers adopt and the delegation that routes their traffic onto the network. | 领先 W3Techs' DNS server provider survey dated 17 September 2026 shows Cloudflare as DNS provider for 18.5% of all websites it monitors, ahead of GoDaddy Group at 9.9%, Hostinger at 4.6%, Amazon at 3.4% and Google at 2.6% - first place by close to a factor of two. | 中等 Deep enough that the scale is real, shallow enough that it is not the moat: changing nameservers is a registrar-level action a customer can take in minutes, and the FY2025 10-K lists 'domain name system (DNS) services vendors' among the point-solution competitors it faces. What holds the position is anycast latency from the same 330-city footprint and the fact that DNS delegation is usually bundled with the security and delivery products rather than bought alone. |
| Developer Platform · Serverless compute, storage and databases Cloudflare Workers and Workers for Platforms, Pages, R2 object storage, D1 serverless SQL, Workers KV, Durable Objects, Hyperdrive and Queues, plus the Stream, Images and Realtime media services built on the same runtime. | 挑战者 The FY2025 10-K places this line directly against the hyperscalers - 'we believe we are increasingly competing with public cloud vendors for storage and compute workloads as more third-party developers utilize our serverless platform' - and calls it 'an entirely new market for us: storage and compute', i.e. a market Cloudflare is entering rather than holding. The filing names 'traditional public cloud vendors' among current competitors and elsewhere concedes those firms have 'substantially greater financial, technical, and other resources'. | 中等 Two genuine asymmetries, neither decisive yet. The 10-K says the efficiency of Workers lets Cloudflare price it 'highly competitive with public cloud vendors' and that running across the whole network 'enables the development of applications that were not previously possible on the traditional public cloud' - developers do not choose regions or scale containers. The 10-K's own product description has R2 Object Storage providing global object storage without egress fees, and the competition section names the pain that targets: 'Customers are concerned about being locked in to any one public cloud provider', which Cloudflare answers by moving data 'efficiently and inexpensively' between multiple clouds. Against that, the workload itself is code: a Worker is far easier to port than a corporate network is to re-architect. |
| SASE Platform (Cloudflare One) · Zero Trust, workplace security and corporate network services Zero Trust Network Access, Secure Web Gateway, the WARP client, Remote Browser Isolation, CASB, Cloud Email Security, DLP and Digital Experience Monitoring, combined with Magic WAN, Magic Transit, Magic Firewall, Network Interconnect and Spectrum as the connectivity half. | 挑战者 No independent share measurement naming Cloudflare in SSE or SASE was obtained for this profile, so the band rests on the FY2025 10-K's own competitive framing: it lists 'cloud security vendors', 'email security vendors' and 'cloud SD-WAN vendors' as current point-solution competitors and concedes that many existing and potential competitors hold 'greater name recognition', 'larger customer bases' and 'more mature products and services developed for large customers'. That is the description of a credible entrant taking share, not of the incumbent - unlike the reverse-proxy market, where third-party data shows Cloudflare at 85.0%. | 中等 The advantage carries over from the network. The 10-K's SASE pitch is a single pane of glass bringing together 'how employees connect, on-ramps for branch offices, secure connectivity for applications, and controlled access to SaaS applications', delivered 'by leveraging the public Internet' in place of the proprietary corporate networks the filing says carried 'a price tag that was prohibitive for most companies'. But the switching costs run in both directions: a SASE deployment is an enterprise identity and policy project, so displacing an entrenched rival is as slow as being displaced - which is why the barrier here is not the one the reverse-proxy footprint enjoys. |
| Workers AI and AI Gateway · Edge AI inference and AI application infrastructure Workers AI runs machine-learning models on serverless GPUs distributed across the network, Vectorize stores and queries embeddings, and AI Gateway adds observability, caching, security and routing in front of AI applications. | 细分市场 The FY2025 10-K presents this as an in-flight build rather than an established position - the GPU rollout is described in the future tense, as an 'ongoing deployment of graphics processing units (GPUs) across our global network of servers, which will help our customers build performant AI into their applications natively'. No revenue, customer count or share figure is disclosed for the AI line, and it is not broken out from developer solutions, so nothing supports a higher band. | 中等 The defensible claim is placement, not silicon: inference running in 330+ cities sits closer to the end user than a regional cloud, and it rides capacity and peering the company already owns, which the 10-K says gets cheaper as the network grows. The limit is that frontier-model training and large-context inference need concentrated GPU clusters Cloudflare does not operate, so this competes for latency-sensitive and small-model work rather than for the whole market. |
这些图表绘制的是 Cloudflare 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-08-06）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，营收增长 1507%，达到 $2.2B（FY2017→FY2025）; 毛利率从 79% 变为 75%; FY2025 净亏损 $102.3M。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-11-02。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Sep 2026 | USD 0.34 (USD 0.34–USD 0.38) · 29 | USD 739385310.00 (USD 736300000.00–USD 774188000.00) · 28 | +32% |
| FY 2026 | USD 1.26 (USD 1.25–USD 1.34) · 32 | USD 2.9B (USD 2.9B–USD 2.9B) · 31 | +32% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
下次财报约在 2026-11-05。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
部分近期数字来自 Yahoo Finance，用于填补最新 SEC 申报尚未发布的期间——已折算为美元，并与 SEC 申报期间做过核对。
正在与同业比较…
| 机构 | 股数 | 金额 | 环比股数变动 | 占 13F 比例 | 占流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被动 / 指数 | 21,598,907 | $5.3B | 504,625 | 0.1% | — |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被动 / 指数 | 12,655,471 | $3.1B | -904,980 | 0.1% | — |
| State Street 被动 / 指数 | 7,420,765 | $1.8B | 242,046 | 0.1% | — |
| ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood) 大师 | 175,723 | $43.1M | -7,921 | 0.3% | — |
| Renaissance Technologies 大师 | 171,400 | $42.0M | 171,400 | 0.1% | — |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大师 | 6,720 | $1.6M | -2,038 | 0.0% | — |
TradingPilot 计算的列（占 13F 比例、占流通股比例）由申报原值推导而来；只有名称、股数与金额是申报原值。
Yahoo Finance (Business Wire) · 2026-10-19 · 产品
Cloudflare announced an expanded ecosystem for its AI workspace, including integrations with Asana, Box, Canva, ClickHouse, GitHub, Gong, Notion and ZoomInfo. Deployment partners include EPAM, HappyCog and Towards AI. Cloudflare describes the platform as a way to connect enterprise agents to existing systems with access controls.
Cloudflare Blog · 2026-10-09 · 合作
Cloudflare said the Deno team, including Deno creator Ryan Dahl, is joining the company to simplify self-hosting of Workers and Durable Objects, and that Cloudflare's open-source workerd runtime will be merged with Deno's celld. The post did not disclose financial terms.
Google News: Cloudflare · 2026-07-12 · 财报
Cloudflare's Q1 earnings topped estimates as revenue grew strongly on large customer additions.
2026-11-02 PR Newswire Financial Services · CNA FINANCIAL ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2026 NET INCOME OF $0.72 PER SHARE AND CORE INCOME OF $0.75 PER SHARE
2026-11-02 PR Newswire Financial Services · LOEWS CORPORATION REPORTS NET INCOME OF $306 MILLION FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2026
2026-10-30 PR Newswire Financial Services · BNCCORP, INC. REPORTS THIRD QUARTER NET INCOME OF $3.0 MILLION, OR $0.85 PER DILUTED SHARE
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NET · Did AI Partnerships Just Shift Cloudflare (NET) Stock Narrative?
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NET · Cloudflare (NET) Could Be 49% Overvalued Following Fresh AI Commerce Traction
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: NET · Cloudflare (NET) Expands AI Reach With Browser Shopping And Workplace Tools
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NET · What Sent Cloudflare Stock Higher?
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NET · Cloudflare (NET) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider
2026-10-26 Yahoo Finance: NET · Is Cloudflare (NET) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?
2026-10-23 PR Newswire Financial Services · FLAGSTAR BANK REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2026 NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO COMMON STOCKHOLDERS OF $0.01 PER DILUTED SHARE
2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance: NET · Cloudflare (NET) Stock May Trade At A Rich Sales Premium
2026-10-22 Yahoo Finance: NET · Cloudflare (NET) Stock Moves -1.18%: What You Should Know
2026-10-21 Yahoo Finance: DDOG · Cloudflare Soars 6% as PHP Flaw Hitting 70% of Websites Lifts Security Stocks
2026-10-21 PR Newswire Tech · Resolve Therapeutics Presents Preclinical Data on NET Degradation and Nuclease Therapy in Acute Ischemic Stroke at the World Stroke Conference
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · Mehr als 10 Millionen Entwickler nutzen Cloudflare für ihre Projekte
2026-10-21 Business Wire AI · Más de 10 millones de desarrolladores están creando aplicaciones en Cloudflare
2026-10-20 Business Wire AI · More than 10 Million Developers Are Building on Cloudflare
2026-10-19 Business Wire AI · La plataforma AI Workspace de Cloudflare colabora con aplicaciones líderes y equipos de implementación para potenciar la productividad de la IA en la empresa
2026-10-19 Business Wire AI · Cloudflare’s AI Workspace Platform Partners with Leading Applications and Deployment Teams to Make AI Productive in the Enterprise
2026-10-14 PR Newswire Tech · Introducing Chainguard Libraries for Go and .NET: Secure Endpoints to Protect Organizations from Supply Chain Attacks
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 财报 | Cloudflare earnings — Company-confirmed date. 已确认 | 中 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Cloudflare earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益超预期 · +5.6% |
| 2026-05-07 | Cloudflare earnings 已确认 | 中 | 每股收益超预期 · -23.6% |
