cloud & hyperscalers · 产业指数 22 (排名 #16) ·
价格: 截至 2026-10-30 指数: 截至 2026-10-30 基本面: 最新申报文件 2026-07-30 按季披露（10-Q XBRL）
Meta 运营 Facebook、Instagram 和 WhatsApp，并正在为其 AI 模型建设大规模 AI 超级集群与定制 MTIA 加速器。
产业敞口 0.4 (Meta 是 AI GPU 与数据中心的最大买家之一，并与 Broadcom 联合设计 MTIA 芯片，但其营收仍以广告为主。)
延迟的日终逐合约汇总数据——不是实时盘口，也不是逐笔资金流。买卖方向是根据每个合约最后一笔成交在买卖价差中的位置推断出来的，并非观测到的委托流。除非有报价的合约占当日权利金的四分之一以上，否则公司层面的方向会被隐去，因此下方个别合约有方向时这里也可能为空。看跌/看涨权利金是在我们采集的合约范围内计算的——最近的 6 个到期日、45 天以内，并非完整期权链——而下表最多列出 20 个被标记的合约，所以把这些行加总不会还原出上面的百分比。
标记原因：matches: AMD says initial Helios systems are installed…
| 日期 | 合约 | 异常分 | 买卖方向（推断）? | 持仓量变动? | 成交量 | 成交量/持仓量 | 标记 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | $597.5 PUT | 76 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +4 | 995 | 17.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $632.5 CALL | 73 | 买方主动 | +19 | 1,254 | 11.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $647.5 CALL | 71 | 买方主动 | +17 | 1,236 | 12.6× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $550 PUT | 65 | 买方主动 | +24 | 2,449 | 7.3× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $652.5 CALL | 64 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +129 | 1,090 | 6.5× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $600 PUT | 56 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +234 | 1,021 | 2.4× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $630 CALL | 55 | 买方主动 | -229 | 4,418 | 7.8× | |
| 2026-10-30 | $650 CALL | 54 | 价差中段 · 无法判定方向 | +899 | 3,965 | 1.8× |
12 smaller flags (under $100000 premium) hidden.
最近交易日：为 13 日基准的 0.9 倍
看涨 53% / 看跌 47%（按权利金）
新闻 主导了这次看多判断；其余智能体意见分歧，置信度反映的正是这种分歧。
投票者大体一致。方向一致度 0.75。
一个明确的看多分数；置信度 0.66 反映的是智能体之间的一致强度。置信度是信心，不是价格变动的概率。
Meta's advantage is the size of the user-advertiser-developer network it monetizes, not proprietary technology: 3.58 billion daily active people across the Family of Apps produced $196.18 billion of 2025 advertising revenue at a 52% segment operating margin, and the 10-K attributes 2025's 9% rise in average price per ad to "an increase in advertising demand, which we believe is mostly due to ongoing improvements to our ad performance from our ad targeting and measurement tools." The filing is equally explicit about what limits that network: TikTok has "reduced some users' engagement," Apple's iOS changes "limit our ability ... to target and measure ads effectively," the April 2025 European Commission decision against its "subscription for no ads" model pushed EU users onto less personalized ads that are "less relevant and effective," and the FTC is seeking divestiture of Instagram and WhatsApp. Reality Labs, the intended next platform, lost $19.19 billion in 2025 on $2.21 billion of revenue and is expected "to continue to operate at a loss for the foreseeable future."
评级: 窄
The FY2025 10-K shows a real moat — 3.58 billion Family daily active people (December 2025 average, +7% YoY) and a 52% Family of Apps operating margin — but the same filing qualifies its durability on three fronts it discloses itself: it says "We face significant competition in every aspect of our business"; it names "competitive products and services, such as TikTok, that have reduced some users' engagement with our products and services"; and it discloses that since 2020 it has been "subject to a lawsuit by the FTC alleging that we violated antitrust laws" that "seeks ... divestiture or reconstruction of Instagram and WhatsApp." A moat a regulator is actively litigating to break up, and whose ad targeting depends on iOS/Android policies Meta does not set, reads narrow rather than wide.
类型: 网络效应
The 10-K Competition section describes a three-sided network in Meta's own words: it competes "to attract, engage, and retain people who use our products, to attract and retain businesses that use our free or paid business and advertising services, and to attract and retain developers who build compelling applications that integrate with our products," and elsewhere cites "the scale of our user, advertiser, and developer base." The same filing rules out an IP-based moat: "We do not believe that our proprietary technology is dependent on any single patent or copyright or groups of related patents or copyrights."
领先地位: 并列领先者
Top-tier but shared: the 10-K reports 3.58 billion Family daily active people and $196.18 billion of 2025 advertising revenue, yet also states that TikTok has "reduced some users' engagement," that "each of Apple and Google have integrated competitive products with iOS and Android," and that Meta competes "with companies in the development and application of AI, particularly with respect to the development of frontier AI models."
定价权: 强
Ad-auction pricing, not list prices: the 10-K reports "the average price per ad increased by 9%" in 2025 after "an increase of 10% in 2024," driven by "an increase in advertising demand," alongside worldwide ARPP of $57.03 (+15%) and a 52% Family of Apps operating margin. The filing notes the gain was "partially offset by a higher number of ad impressions delivered ... in products, such as Reels, that monetize at lower rates."
基于所引来源做出的人工整理护城河判断。 来源：sec.gov
层级: cloud & hyperscalers
Demand-side anchor of the AI build-out: the 10-K reports $72.22 billion of 2025 capital expenditures and says Meta has "designed and built our own data centers and key portions of our technical infrastructure," funded entirely by the advertising business.
由这家公司已映射的供应链关系及其所属产业层级推导而来。
护城河先验在长周期（约 6 个月）上投出 +0.17 票，权重为 0.20——该周期上的群体判断是 neutral（得分 0.11，信念度 0）。
编辑先验——主观、未经回测。它有界（±0.6）、低置信度，且从不对短周期与中周期投票。 查看它究竟如何投票 →
产品与服务，附编辑判定的市场份额区间与技术壁垒区间——这些是与所引依据绑定的定性判断，绝非杜撰的数字。
| 产品 | 市场份额 | 技术壁垒 |
|---|---|---|
| Facebook · Social networking Feed, Reels, Stories, Groups and Marketplace — a Family of Apps property the 10-K describes as a place "to share life's moments and discuss what's happening." | 前三 The 10-K reports Family daily active people of 3.58 billion on average for December 2025 (+7% YoY) — a Family-wide figure — and states that "Substantially all of our revenue is currently generated from advertising on Facebook and Instagram"; the same filing discloses an FTC antitrust suit that "seeks ... divestiture or reconstruction of Instagram and WhatsApp," i.e. a regulator litigating against a position it treats as dominant. The filing discloses no Facebook-specific user or share figure and never ranks it against its sibling apps, so top_3 — the same band this file gives Instagram and WhatsApp on the same evidence — is the sourceable call; a leader band is not. | 中等 Meta's own filing argues against a permanent barrier: "A number of other social networking companies that achieved early popularity have since seen their active user bases or levels of engagement decline, in some cases precipitously. There is no guarantee that we will not experience a similar erosion of our active user base or engagement levels." |
| Instagram · Visual social + short video Feed, Stories, Reels, Live and messaging, where the 10-K says people "discover and shop from their favorite businesses." | 前三 The 10-K states that "Substantially all of our revenue is currently generated from advertising on Facebook and Instagram," but also that competitive products "such as TikTok ... have reduced some users' engagement with our products and services" — a top-tier but contested position. The filing discloses no share figure, so a leader band is not sourceable. | 中等 The risk factors flag user-base fluctuations and declines "particularly for Facebook and Instagram" in "markets where we have achieved higher penetration rates," and name TikTok as an active drain on engagement. |
| Meta AI and Llama models · AI assistant and foundation models An assistant "available across our apps, as a stand-alone app, on our AI glasses, and on the web," built on the Llama family that Meta has "a history of open-sourcing." | 挑战者 The 10-K places Meta among contenders rather than incumbents: "We also compete with companies in the development and application of AI, particularly with respect to the development of frontier AI models," and it frames superintelligence as an aspiration — "Although it is inherently difficult to predict when superintelligence may be achieved, we are investing now." | 中等 Capital scale is the barrier the filing evidences — $72.22 billion of 2025 capital expenditures and self-built data centers — but the same section says "a substantial portion of our technical infrastructure is also provided by third parties" and depends on "the continued availability of components, power, and network capacity." |
| Meta Ads (Family of Apps advertising platform) · Digital advertising Self-service and sales-assisted ad buying with targeting and measurement, placed across Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Threads and WhatsApp "as well as third-party applications and websites." | 前三 The 10-K reports $196.18 billion of 2025 advertising revenue (+22% YoY) across the Family of Apps, while describing competition from "companies that sell advertising to businesses looking to reach consumers and/or develop tools and systems for managing and optimizing advertising campaigns." The filing gives no advertising-market share, so top-tier — not sole leader — is the sourceable band. | 中等 The barrier is externally conditioned: the 10-K says Meta relies on "data signals from user activity on websites and services that we do not control," that Apple's iOS changes "limit our ability ... to target and measure ads effectively," and that after the European Commission's April 2025 decision EU users may be served less personalized ads that are "less relevant and effective than our premium ad offerings." |
| Reality Labs devices (Meta Quest and AI glasses) · VR headsets and AI wearables The 10-K defines the line directly: "RL revenue is generated from the delivery of consumer hardware products, such as Meta Quest and AI glasses, and related software and content" — including Ray-Ban Meta, Oakley Meta and Meta Ray-Ban Display. | 细分市场 Reality Labs generated $2.21 billion of 2025 revenue (+3%) against $200.97 billion of total revenue, in a category the 10-K describes as one where "the metaverse is in the very early stages of its development." No unit or category-share figure is disclosed. | 低 The filing shows a subsidised position, not a defended one: Reality Labs lost $19.19 billion in 2025 (a -870% operating margin) and Meta expects the segment "to continue to operate at a loss for the foreseeable future," with its ability to keep investing "dependent on generating sufficient profits from other areas of our business." |
| WhatsApp · Messaging Messaging "used by people and businesses around the world to communicate and transact in a private way," plus WhatsApp Channels broadcast and paid business messaging. | 前三 The 10-K reports Family of Apps other revenue up 50% in 2025 "mostly driven by paid messaging from WhatsApp and Meta Verified subscriptions," and discloses that the FTC suit seeks "divestiture or reconstruction of Instagram and WhatsApp." No messaging market-share figure is disclosed, so top-tier rather than leader is the sourceable band. | 中等 Distribution runs through operating systems Meta does not control — the 10-K says it is "dependent on the interoperability of our products with popular mobile operating systems, networks, technologies, products, and standards that we do not control," and that "each of Apple and Google have integrated competitive products with iOS and Android." |
这些图表绘制的是 Meta Platforms 在其 SEC 申报文件中已申报的利润表、现金流量表与资产负债表（截至 2026-07-30）。每一个数字都是申报原值 XBRL——没有任何一项是预估。
在已申报的区间内，FY2025 净利润为 $60.5B。
分析师一致预期——来自 Yahoo Finance 的第三方预估，截至 2026-10-26。这不是 SEC 申报文件，也不是 TradingPilot 的预测。 来源：finance.yahoo.com
| 期间 | 每股收益（预估） | 营收（预估） | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q/E Dec 2026 | USD 8.33 (USD 7.68–USD 9.65) · 41 | USD 74.9B (USD 72.6B–USD 75.9B) · 46 | +25% |
| FY 2026 | USD 29.20 (USD 27.77–USD 32.34) · 54 | USD 256.5B (USD 252.5B–USD 257.6B) · 52 | +28% |
每个数字显示一致预期均值、可得时的（最低–最高）区间，以及 · 后面给出该预估背后的分析师人数。
我们的模型在中周期上对这只股票偏向 Low-confidence · Neutral——这是对市场方向的判断，不是对盈利的预测。查看“信号”标签。
部分近期数字来自 Yahoo Finance，用于填补最新 SEC 申报尚未发布的期间——已折算为美元，并与 SEC 申报期间做过核对。
正在与同业比较…
| 机构 | 股数 | 金额 | 环比股数变动 | 占 13F 比例 | 占流通股比例 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock 被动 / 指数 | 173,396,976 | $97.7B | 4,553,693 | 1.5% | — |
| FMR (Fidelity) 被动 / 指数 | 95,895,744 | $54.0B | -20,719,009 | 2.3% | — |
| State Street 被动 / 指数 | 92,033,963 | $51.8B | 3,510,123 | 1.5% | — |
| Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman) 大师 | 2,823,180 | $1.6B | -263,684 | 6.6% | — |
| Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont) 大师 | 2,526,048 | $1.4B | -286,008 | 2.9% | — |
| Renaissance Technologies 大师 | 2,023,153 | $1.1B | 1,769,780 | 1.6% | — |
| Appaloosa Management (David Tepper) 大师 | 675,000 | $380.2M | 238,500 | 4.9% | — |
| ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood) 大师 | 238,973 | $134.6M | 84,977 | 0.9% | — |
| Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio (founder)) 大师 | 110,083 | $62.0M | -181,582 | 0.3% | — |
TradingPilot 计算的列（占 13F 比例、占流通股比例）由申报原值推导而来；只有名称、股数与金额是申报原值。
| 被投公司 | 内容 | 日期 | 状态 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scale AI | $14.3B for a 49% minority stake, valuing Scale at over $29B; Scale co-founder Alexandr Wang moved to Meta's superintelligence effort ($14.3B) | 2025-06-12 | active |
GlobeNewswire · 2026-10-27 · 合作
AMD said initial Helios rackscale systems are installed and being tested at Meta ahead of broader deployment. EPYC processors support Meta’s Muse agent, and the companies continue work across GPUs, networking and ROCm. AMD also announced planned equity-offering participation.
NVIDIA Newsroom · 2026-10-26 · 合作
NVIDIA and Meta announced expanded work on Muse models and agent infrastructure. Meta intends to expand Vera Rubin and Vera CPU deployments; the companies are considering additional agent-security collaboration. NVIDIA also announced planned participation in Meta’s equity offering.
CNBC · 2026-10-15 · 产品
Meta released Muse Spark Open, an 816-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts open-weight model, and Meta and Apple revealed a collaboration that lets developers run it locally by pairing two to four Mac Studio computers. Apple published new benchmarks for its chips and technical documentation on its MLX framework's ability to split open-source models across multiple machines; CNBC notes the two companies had not struck a public partnership since 2017.
CNBC · 2026-10-13 · 监管
A federal jury in Delaware found that Arm Holdings breached a licensing agreement with Qualcomm and intentionally interfered with Qualcomm's business relationship with Meta Platforms, but awarded Qualcomm nominal damages of just $2. The verdict followed a five-day trial, the second between the companies in two years.
Meta Newsroom · 2026-10-12 · 产品
Meta introduced the Muse Wonder series, Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, which it calls its most capable models to date, built for personal and professional agentic tasks. Muse Wonder is available to developers through the Meta Model API and Muse Code, Muse Wonder Full is available to Muse Code subscribers, and Muse Wonder will soon power experiences in Muse, rolling out first to subscribers.
NVIDIA Blog · 2026-10-12 · 合作
At the OCP Global Summit, NVIDIA contributed key Vera Rubin rack and compute tray designs to OCP through its open MGX architecture. Meta is adopting NVIDIA Spectrum-6 102.4Tb/s Ethernet switches to build larger Vera Rubin AI factories, and NVIDIA joined AMD, Google and Meta to publish the Open Data Center Specification v0.7, a blueprint for AI factory facility design.
Reuters · 2026-10-09 · 监管
A Delaware federal jury did not reach a verdict on Friday in Qualcomm's lawsuit alleging Arm breached licensing agreements by withholding software patches and tools and by violating an agreement meant to ensure Qualcomm paid within 10% of the lowest price for Arm's processor designs. Qualcomm also alleges Arm tried to torpedo its dealings with Meta Platforms by leaking a 2024 letter to Bloomberg; Arm argued Qualcomm suffered no harm.
Bloomberg · 2026-10-08 · 产品
Meta Platforms began implementing a complete restriction on ads and paid marketing messages placed on its platforms by ByteDance, which remains in charge of key parts of TikTok in the US. The ban takes effect in the US, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam, and extends to third-party advertisers running campaigns that link to TikTok and other ByteDance properties.
PR Newswire · 2026-10-07 · 监管
Duke Energy's two North Carolina utilities reached a settlement with the North Carolina Public Staff, with Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft among the other parties, requiring large-load customers of 50 megawatts or more with 80% load factor to make nonrefundable upfront payments for grid facilities serving only them. The agreement is subject to approval by the North Carolina Utilities Commission.
PR Newswire · 2026-10-07 · 合作
Biohub, the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Institutes of Health and new funding partners announced a $1.8 billion effort to generate AI-ready biological data. As part of it, Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs and Meta are collectively investing $300 million in the Virtual Biology Initiative.
Arista Networks · 2026-10-07 · 产品
Arista Networks announced an open Ethernet rack-scale portfolio for scale-up and scale-out AI infrastructure, engineered in partnership with AMD, Arm, Broadcom, d-Matrix, Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm. Its Etherlink SU-144 architecture supports up to 144 accelerators in a single-hop network and scales to 1,024 XPUs through cross-rack topologies.
The Next Web · 2026-10-06 · 合作
Sierra and Meta are developing Personal Agent Protocol, an open standard defining how personal AI agents authenticate with businesses and what those businesses let them do, with Genesys, Instinct, Rocket, Shopify, Stripe and Walmart. A v0.1 specification is due this month.
Meta · 2026-09-21 · 产品
Meta announced Petal, a 7,000 km subsea cable connecting the US and France that it says will be the first subsea cable with petabit capacity deployed across an ocean. Meta is developing it with NEC and Sumitomo Electric Industries, and it is expected to be in service in 2029.
GeekWire · 2026-09-21 · 产品
Amazon said it cut off Meta's Muse personal AI agent from shopping on Amazon.com on customers' behalf after unsuccessfully asking Meta to exclude the site, saying Meta did not notify it, the agent does not identify itself and it appears to capture and store customer credentials; Amazon said it is in direct conversation with Meta.
Yahoo Finance: TSM · 2026-09-15 · 产品
Reporting says Meta plans to launch a new in-house AI chip in 2027, targeting efficiency gains against NVIDIA silicon.
Music Business Worldwide · 2026-09-10 · 监管
A judge dismissed the copyright claims in music publisher Wixen's $102 million suit against Meta, cutting back one of the content-licensing cases pending against the company.
Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-10 · 融资
Meta acquired Swedish AI startup Stilla.ai, adding AI messaging tooling to its stack. Terms were not disclosed.
WSJ · 2026-09-10 · 人事
A prominent AI researcher is departing Meta for Anthropic, continuing the outflow of senior research talent from Meta's AI organization to rival labs.
WIRED · 2026-09-09 · 监管
San Francisco officials formally ordered Meta to stop running AI-generated child sexual abuse advertisements on its platforms, after reporting found hundreds of such ads, some using images of real children.
24/7 Wall St. · 2026-09-09 · 产品
Meta launched its Muse AI agent with paid subscription tiers, its first direct consumer monetization of a frontier assistant. The stock rose about 6% on the day while Alphabet fell 2%.
2026-10-30 CNBC Top News · Meta outlook revised downward by S&P on cash flow and capex concerns
2026-10-29 EDGAR current 8-K filings · 8-K - Meta Platforms, Inc. (0001326801) (Filer)
2026-10-29 Business Wire Contracts/Agreements · Fortera & Meta Sign Multi-Year Environmental Attribute Certificate (EAC) Purchase Agreement for Low Carbon Cement
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: META · Meta says its expanded processing capacity is driving ad results
2026-10-28 Yahoo Finance: META · Meta Just Priced a Stock Sale at $625 a Share. I'd Consider Buying at the Same Price.
2026-10-28 Business Wire AI · Product Launch of NIL Technology’s Award-Winning metaEye™, World's First All Meta-Optics Camera
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: META · Meta Loses $400 Billion, Auctions More Stock, But Analysts Still See 1.4x Upside
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: META · Meta Platforms Stock Falls Despite Posting Strong Q3 Numbers. Should Investors Buy the Dip?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: META · What Is Going On With Meta Stock on Tuesday?
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: MSFT · Meta’s Capital Raise Is Spooking Investors. What the Price Targets Say Now
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: META · $116 Oil Just Made Saudi Aramco Bigger Than Meta
2026-10-27 Yahoo Finance: AMD · Meta’s $97.5B AI money grab: why Zuckerberg is racing to raise cash before rivals
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Health · Meta-Analysis Finds Prolacta's Exclusive Human Milk Diet is Associated With 20% Lower Odds of Death in Premature and Very Low Birthweight Infants, Compared to Cow Milk-Based Diet
2026-10-27 PR Newswire Tech · Meta Announces Pricing of Offering of Depositary Shares Representing Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock and Offering of Class A Common Stock in Connection with Forward Sale Agreements
2026-10-26 Business Wire Health · Meta Cell Technology Brings Together International Medical Educators for First MCT Academy – Train the Trainers
2026-10-26 CNBC Top News · Meta announces $95 billion stock offering to fund AI expansion
2026-10-23 CNBC Top News · Meta shares are down 9% this week. Here's why Mike Khouw is buying now
2026-10-23 Business Wire AI · Infinity Hires Meta Superintelligence Labs Chip Veteran and the CUDA Educator Who's Taught Two Million Engineers
2026-10-22 CNBC Top News · Meta’s deal to keep Zuckerberg in California adds fuel to wealth tax debate ahead of election
2026-10-22 CNBC Top News · A lesson from poker tells us not to fold on Meta after its earnings sell-off. Here’s why
影响 = 公司显著度层级（高/中由图谱中心度与规模自动判定；低仅用于人工整理的次要事件），不是对波动幅度的预测。
| 日期 | 类型 | 事件 | 影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-21 | 财报 | Meta Platforms earnings (estimated) — Date not yet announced — estimated from EDGAR filing cadence (last periodic filing + 91/365 days); confirm via IR. 预估 | 高 |
| 日期 | 事件 | 影响 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Meta Platforms earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益不及预期 · 营收超预期 · -7.0% |
| 2026-07-29 | Meta Platforms earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益不及预期 · -8.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | Meta Platforms earnings 已确认 | 高 | 每股收益超预期 · -8.6% |
